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Uncertainty Quantification of the Multi-centennial Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change
Bulthuis, Kevin; Arnst, Maarten; Sainan, Sun et al.
2019SIAM Conference on Mathematical & Computational Issues in the Geosciences (GS19)
 

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Keywords :
Uncertainty quantification; Sensitivity analysis; Antarctica; Quantification d'incertitudes; Analyse de sensibilité; Antarctique
Abstract :
[en] Uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit the ability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we apply probabilistic methods to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty (atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation) on the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise and grounding-line retreat and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analyses to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that all sources of uncertainty, except perhaps the bedrock relaxation times, contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that the sensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and the contribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty in the projections becomes more and more dominant as the scenario gets warmer. We show that the significance of the contribution to sea-level rise is controlled by instabilities in marine basins, especially in the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). We find that, irrespectively of parametric uncertainty, the RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the WAIS, that in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios the occurrence of instabilities in marine basins is more sensitive to parametric uncertainty and that, almost irrespectively of parametric uncertainty, RCP 8.5 triggers the collapse of the WAIS.
Disciplines :
Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Author, co-author :
Bulthuis, Kevin ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'aérospatiale et mécanique > Computational and stochastic modeling
Arnst, Maarten ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'aérospatiale et mécanique > Computational and stochastic modeling
Sainan, Sun;  Université Libre de Bruxelles - ULB > Department of Geosciences, Environment & Society > Laboratory of Glaciology
Pattyn, Frank;  Université Libre de Bruxelles - ULB > Department of Geosciences, Environment & Society > Laboratory of Glaciology
Language :
English
Title :
Uncertainty Quantification of the Multi-centennial Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change
Alternative titles :
[fr] Quantification de l'incertitude sur la réponse multiséculaire de la calotte polaire antarctique au changement climatique
Publication date :
11 March 2019
Event name :
SIAM Conference on Mathematical & Computational Issues in the Geosciences (GS19)
Event organizer :
SIAM Activity Group on the Geosciences
Event place :
Houston, United States
Event date :
March 11-14, 2019
Audience :
International
Funders :
F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE]
Available on ORBi :
since 04 March 2019

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