[en] Analyses of hydrological impacts of climate change require appropriate methods for perturbing meteoric time-series to represent future climate conditions. Two readily available tools for perturbing rainfalls and temperatures are tested for a medium-sized catchment in Belgium. CCI-HYDR provides three scenarios, tailored for Belgium every decade until 2100. In contrast, KNMI-ADC tool provides 191 scenarios, at a regional level and for two horizons (near and far future). With its three contrasted scenarios of possible future climate conditions, CCI-HYDR is found suitable for forcing computationally intensive detailed hydrological models. With its broader spectrum of climate scenarios, KNMI-ADC tool is suitable for forcing multiple runs of fast conceptual hydrological models.
As the two perturbation tools deliver stationary time-series, they are also compared to an alternate method producing transient time-series.
Transient stochastic tools are particularly computationally demanding due to their stochastic nature, which is not optimal when combined with detailed distributed hydrological models.
Baguis, P., Boukhris, O., Ntegeka, V., Roulin, E., Willems, P. and Demarée, G. (2008) Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes Along Rivers and Urban Drainage Systems. I. Literature Review, Technical Report Cci-Hydr Project, KU Leuven - Hydraulics Section Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgian Science Policy - SSD Research Programme.
Burton, A., Fowler, H.J., Blenkinsop, S. and Kilsby, C.G. (2010a) 'Downscaling transient climate change using a Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses stochastic rainfall model', Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 381, Nos. 1-2, pp.18-32.
Burton, A., Fowler, H.J., Kilsby, C.G. and O'Connell, P.E. (2010b) 'A stochastic model for the spatial-temporal simulation of nonhomogeneous rainfall occurrence and amounts', Water Resources Research, Vol. 46, No. 11, pp.W11501.
Burton, A., Glenis, V., Jones, M.R. and Kilsby, C.G. (2013) 'Models of daily rainfall cross-correlation for the United Kingdom', Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 49, pp.22-33.
Christensen, J.H. and Christensen, O.B. (2007) 'A summary of the prudence model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century', Climatic Change, Vol. 81, Suppl. 1, pp.7-30.
Christensen, J.H., Carter, T.R., Rummukainen, M. and Amanatidis, G. (2007) 'Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the prudence project', Climatic Change, Vol. 81, Suppl. 1, pp.1-6.
Dewals, B., Bruwier, M., Mustapha, A., Peltier, Y., Saadi, I., Archambeau, P., Erpicum, S., Orban, P., Cools, M., Dassargues, A., Teller, J. and Pirotton, M. (2015) 'Landuse change and future flood risk: an integrated and multi-scale approach', in e-Proceedings 36th IAHR World Congress, The Hague, The Netherlands, 28 June-3 July.
Goderniaux, P., Brouyére, S., Blenkinsop, S., Burton, A., Fowler, H.J., Orban, P. and Dassargues, A. (2011) 'Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios', Water Resources Research, Vol. 47, No. 12, pp.W12516.
Gohari, A., Zareeian, M.J. and Eslamian, S. (2015) 'A multi-model framework for climate change impact as-sessment', Leal Filho, W. (Ed.): Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, pp.17-35, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
Haylock, M.R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A.M.G., Klok, E.J., Jones, P.D. and New, M. (2008) 'A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006', Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, Vol. 113, No. 20, pp.D20119.
IPCC (2014) Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, pp.1-32, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the In-tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Kilsby, C.G., Jones, P.D., Burton, A., Ford, A.C., Fowler, H.J., Harpham, C., James, P., Smith, A. and Wilby, R.L. (2007) 'A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies', Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 22, No. 12, pp.1705-1719.
Kraaijenbrink, P. (2013a) Advanced Delta Change Method: Extension of an Application to Cmip5 Gcms, Master thesis. Utrecht University.
Kraaijenbrink, P. (2013b) Adc Application Manual_2013, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt.
Moss, R.H., Edmonds, J.A., Hibbard, K.A., Manning, M.R., Rose, S.K., Vuuren, D.P., Van Carter, T.R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G.A., Mitchell, J.F.B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S.J., Stouffer, R.J., Thomson, A.M., Weyant, J.P. and Wilbanks, T.J. (2010) 'The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment', Nature, Vol. 463, No. 7282, pp.747-756.
Mujere, N. and Eslamian, S. (2014) 'Climate change impacts on hydrology and water re-sources, in handbook of engineering hydrology', Chapter 7, Vol. 2, in Eslamian, S. (Ed.): Modeling, Climate Changes and Variability, pp.113-126, Francis and Taylor, CRC Group, USA.
Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E. and Willems, P. (2014) 'Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments', Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 508, pp.307-321.
Saadi, I., Bruwier, M., Mustafa, A., Peltier, Y., Erpicum, S., Archambeau, P., Orban, P., Dassargues, A., Dewals, B., Pirotton, M., Teller, J. and Cools, M. (2016) Development Trajectory of an Integrated Framework for the Mitigation of Future Flood Risk: Results from the FloodLand Project, Transportation Letters, in press.
Seaby, L.P., Refsgaard, J.C., Sonnenborg, T.O., Stisen, S., Christensen, J.H. and Jensen, K.H. (2013) 'Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections', Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 486, pp.479-493.
Tabari, H., Taye, M.T. and Willems, P. (2015) 'Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century', Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 131, pp.115-123.
Te Linde, A.H., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Bakker, A.M.R. and Kwadijk, J.C.J. (2010) 'Simulating low-probability peak discharges for the Rhine Basin using resampled climate modeling data', Water Resources Research, Vol. 46, No. 3, ppW03512.
Van Pelt, S.C., Beersma, J.J., Buishand, T.A., Van Den Hurk, B.J.J.M. and Kabat, P. (2012) 'Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine Basin based on global and regional climate model simulations', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, No. 12, pp.4517-4530.
Willems, P. (2009) 'A time series tool to support the multi-criteria performance evaluation of rainfall-runoff models', Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp.311-321.
Willems, P. (2013a) 'Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe', Climatic Change, Vol. 120, No. 4, pp.931-944.
Willems, P. (2013b) 'Multidecadal climate oscillations and climate scenarios for impact analysis on hydrological extremes in Belgium', in AMICE Final Conference Trans boundary Water Management Changing Climate, Sedan, pp.9-17.
Willems, P. (2013c) 'Adjustment of extreme rainfall statistics accounting for multidecadal climate oscillations', Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 490, pp.126-133.
Willems, P. and Vrac, M. (2011) 'Statistical precipitation downscaling for small-scale hydrological impact investigations of climate change', Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 402, Nos. 3-4, pp.193-205.