Performance of similarity analysis in the estimation of forage yields in the Sahelian zone of Niger

The study aims to test the performance of similarity analysis in herbaceous fodder biomass estimate in the Nigerian pastoral zone, in a context of insecurity and precipitation spatiotemporal variability. It is carried out on the time series of NDVI decadal images of SPOT VEGETATION for the period from 2001 to 2012 and on fodder biomasses measured in situ during the same period. Similarity analysis compares NDVI seasonal patterns to detect similar years using three criteria: the RMSE (Root Mean squared error), the MAD (Mean absolute Deviation), and R². Exploratory statistical analyzes with bootstrap are carried out to better characterize the observations resulting from the simulation. Moreover, the analysis of the parametric and non-parametric correlations is carried out to evaluate the level of link between the simulated data and the real data. The t test and the Wilcoxon test are then carried out in order to compare the means of the actual biomasses with those obtained by the similarity analysis. At the local level, the results indicate that the R² is more efficient than the RMSE and the MAD which have almost the same performances. The results of the similarity calculated with R² can be used as a proxy to the herbaceous phytomass measured in situ, as there is no significant difference between the simulated mean and the mean measured at the 1% threshold. On the other hand, the results of the similarity calculated with the RMSE and
the MAD are not exploitable. Parametric and nonparametric correlations are all significant at
the 1% threshold. However, the R² are low and vary between 0.32 and 0.45. It therefore seems
necessary to continue the research, as numerous studies have revealed very good links
between certain indices like the FAPAR, the EVI and the LAI and the aerial phytomasse.