Observation and simulation of ethane (C2H6) at 23 FTIR sites

Ethane is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) in the Earth atmosphere. Its main sources are of anthropogenic origin, with globally 62% from leakage during production and transport of natural gas, 20% from biofuel combustion and 18% from biomass burning. In the Southern hemisphere, anthropogenic emissions are lower which makes biomass burning emissions a more significant source.
The main removal process is oxidation by the hydroxyl radical (OH), leading to a mean atmospheric lifetime of 2 months. Until recently, a prolonged decrease of its abundance has been documented, at rates of -1 to -2.7%/yr, with global emissions dropping from 14 to 11 Tg/yr over 1984-2010 owing to successful measures reducing fugitive emissions from its fossil fuel sources.
However, subsequent investigations have reported on an upturn in the ethane trend, characterized by a sharp rise from about 2009 onwards. The ethane increase is attributed to the oil and natural gas production boom in North America, although significant changes in OH could also be at play.In the present contribution, we report the trend of ethane at 23 ground-based Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) sites spanning the 80ºN to 79ºS latitude range. Over 2010-2015, a significant ethane rise of 3-5%/yr is determined for most sites in the Northern Hemisphere, while for the Southern hemisphere the rates of changes are not significant at the 2-sigma uncertainty level.
Dedicated model simulations by EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry; ~1.8×1.8 degrees) implementing various emission scenarios are included in order to support data interpretation. The usual underestimation of the NMHCs emissions in the main inventories is confirmed here for RCP85 (Representative Concentration Pathway Database v8.5). Scaling them by 1.5 is needed to capture the background levels of atmospheric ethane. Moreover, additional and significant emissions (~7 Tg over 2009-2015) are needed to capture the ethane rise in the Northern hemisphere. Attributing them to the oil and gas sector and locating them in North America allows EMAC to produce adequate trends in the Northern hemisphere, but not in the Southern hemisphere, where they are overestimated. Possible causes for this difference are discussed.