Can Autonomous Vehicles Reduce Car Mobility? Evidence from a Stated Adaptation Experiment in Belgium

From literature, it is clear that the discussion about the potential benefits and drawbacks of autonomous vehicles is not finished. In order to provide insight into this discussion, this paper investigates different attitudes with respect to different key factors for the deployment of system of autonomous taxis. To this end, a stated adaptation experiment was carried out in Belgium in March 2016. To investigate which factors influence the variables of interest, i.e. (i) the number of minutes one is prepared to wait before an autonomous taxi picks up the person, (ii) the ownership of a private car when autonomous taxis are available, (iii) the willigness to share an autonomous taxi, (iv) the permittance for the autonomous vehicle to take a detour when it is beneficial for the society, and (v) the willigness to share your private agenda to ensure a timely autonomous taxi, different regression models are constructed. The results show that the considered explanatory factors only capture a small part of the variability five variables of interest. This is as signal that market segmentation might be very challenging. Besides, this is an indication that a broader range of factors should be included such as life-style factors and psychological constructs. Finally, this acknowledges the need for some skepticism with regard to the potential benefits of autonomous vehicles. The results are interesting for providing realistic boundaries and cross-classification in further simulation studies that look at the benefits of autonomous vehicles.