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Nonparametric estimation and bootstrap inference on recent trends in atmospheric ethane
Friedrich, Marina; Reuvers, H.; Smeekes, S. et al.
20159th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE 2015)
 

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Keywords :
atmospheric ethane; bootstrap inference; nonparametric estimation
Abstract :
[en] Ethane is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon in the Earth's atmosphere and an important precursor of tropospheric ozone. Its monitoring is therefore crucial for the characterization of air quality and of the transport of tropospheric pollution. Ethane is also an indirect greenhouse gas, influencing the atmospheric lifetime of methane. The main sources of ethane are located in the northern hemisphere, and the dominating emissions are associated to production and transport of natural gas. A preliminary trend analysis was conducted using measurements performed in the Swiss Alps. Over the last two decades, the trend of ethane showed a decline of around 1% per year, thanks to a reduction of fugitive emissions of fossil fuel sources. However, a recent upturn potentially attributed to the massive exploitation of shale gas and tight oil reservoirs in North America was found. The goal is to investigate the presence and form of changes in trend functions using nonparametric techniques. The possible location of such changes is investigated. In addition, nonparametric estimation techniques are used to allow for nonlinear trend functions. Given the nonstandard nature of the measurements we rely on dependent wild bootstrap techniques to conduct inference on possible breaks in linear trends and on nonparametric trend functions.
Disciplines :
Quantitative methods in economics & management
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Friedrich, Marina;  Universiteit Maastricht > Department of Quantitative Economics
Reuvers, H.;  Universiteit Maastricht > Department of Quantitative Economics
Smeekes, S.;  Universiteit Maastricht > Department of Quantitative Economics
Urbain, J.-P.;  Universiteit Maastricht > Department of Quantitative Economics
Bader, Whitney ;  Université de Liège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Groupe infra-rouge de phys. atmosph. et solaire (GIRPAS)
Franco, Bruno ;  Université de Liège > R&D Direction : Chercheurs ULiège en mobilité
Lejeune, Bernard ;  Université de Liège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Groupe infra-rouge de phys. atmosph. et solaire (GIRPAS)
Mahieu, Emmanuel  ;  Université de Liège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Groupe infra-rouge de phys. atmosph. et solaire (GIRPAS)
Language :
English
Title :
Nonparametric estimation and bootstrap inference on recent trends in atmospheric ethane
Publication date :
12 December 2015
Event name :
9th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE 2015)
Event organizer :
CFE network
Event place :
London, United Kingdom
Event date :
12-14 December 2015
Audience :
International
Available on ORBi :
since 21 April 2016

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