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An integrated framework for forecasting travel behavior using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo simulation and profile Hidden Markov Models
Saadi, Ismaïl; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed; Teller, Jacques et al.
2016In Proceedings of the 95th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
Peer reviewed
 

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Abstract :
[en] Recent advances in agent-based micro-simulation modelling have further underlined the importance of a thorough full synthetic population procedure to guarantee a correct characterization of the true population. We propose an integrated approach including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and profiling based methods to catch the complexity and the diversity of agents of the true population through representative micro samples. The population synthesis method is capable of building the joint distribution of a given population with its corresponding marginal distributions (e.g. age, gender, socio-professional status etc.) using complete, partial conditional probabilities or both of them at the same time. Particularly, the estimation of socio-demographic variables and characterization of daily activity-travel patterns are included within the framework. Data stemming from the 2010 Belgian Household Daily Travel Survey (BELDAM) are used to calibrate the modelling framework. We illustrate that this framework catches in an efficient way the behavioral heterogeneity of travelers. Furthermore, we show that the proposed framework is adequately adapted to build large scale micro-simulation scenarios of transportation and urban systems.
Research center :
Lepur : Centre de Recherche sur la Ville, le Territoire et le Milieu rural - ULiège
LEMA : Local Environment Management & Analysis
Disciplines :
Special economic topics (health, labor, transportation...)
Civil engineering
Author, co-author :
Saadi, Ismaïl ;  Université de Liège > Département ArGEnCo > Transports et mobilité
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ;  Université de Liège > Département ArGEnCo > LEMA (Local environment management and analysis)
Teller, Jacques  ;  Université de Liège > Département ArGEnCo > Urbanisme et aménagement du territoire
Cools, Mario  ;  Université de Liège > Département ArGEnCo > Transports et mobilité
Language :
English
Title :
An integrated framework for forecasting travel behavior using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo simulation and profile Hidden Markov Models
Publication date :
2016
Event name :
95th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
Event organizer :
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies
Event place :
Washington, United States - District of Columbia
Event date :
January 10–14, 2016
Audience :
International
Main work title :
Proceedings of the 95th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
Publisher :
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, United States - District of Columbia
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
Name of the research project :
ARC - Floodland
Available on ORBi :
since 15 January 2016

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