Abstract :
[en] OBJECTIVE
This paper uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) to study the transition to second and third births. In particular, we seek to distinguish the factors that
determine the timing of fertility from the factors that influence ultimate parity
progression.
METHODS
We employ cure survival models, a technique commonly used in epidemiological
studies and in the statistical literature but only rarely applied to fertility research.
RESULTS
We find that education has a different impact on the timing and the ultimate probability
of having a second and a third birth. Furthermore, we show that the shape of the fertility schedule for the total population differs from that of ‘susceptible women’ (i.e., those
who have a second or a third child).
CONCLUSION
Standard event history models conflate timing and quantum effects. Our approach overcomes this shortcoming. It estimates separate parameters for the hazard rate of
having a next child for the ‘susceptible population’ and the ultimate probability of having another child for the entire population at risk.
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