[en] This study aims to explore the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect in Europe. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of 1981–2010 baseline daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour may depart markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicate that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields are more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities are mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminish under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.
Disciplines :
Computer science Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Pirttioja, Nina
Carter, Timothy
Fronzek, Stefan
Bindi, Marco
Hoffmann, Holger
Palosuo, Taru
RuizRamos, Margarita
Trnka, Miroslav
Acutis, Marco
Asseng, Senthold
Baranowski, Piotr
Basso, Bruno
Bodin, Per
Buis, Samuel
Cammarano, Davide
Deligios, Paola
Destain, Marie-France ; Université de Liège > Ingénierie des biosystèmes (Biose) > Agriculture de précision
Doro, Luca
Dumont, Benjamin ; Université de Liège > Ingénierie des biosystèmes (Biose) > Agriculture de précision
Ewert, Frank
Ferrise, Roberto
François, Louis ; Université de Liège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques
Gaiser, Thomas
Hlavinka, Petr
Kersebaum, Christian
Kollas, Chris
Krzyszczak, Jaromir
Torres, Ignacio Lorite
Minet, Julien ; Université de Liège > DER Sc. et gest. de l'environnement (Arlon Campus Environ.) > Eau, Environnement, Développement
Minguez, M. Ines
Montesino, Manuel
Moriondo, Marco
Nendel, Claas
Öztürk, Isik
Perego, Alessia
Ruget, Françoise
Rodríguez, Alfredo
Sanna, Mattia
Semenov, Mikhail
Slawinski, Cezary
Stratonovitch, Pierre
Supit, Iwan
Tao, Fulu
Waha, Katharina
Wang, Enli
Wu, Lianhai
Zhao, Zhigan
Rötter", Reimund
Jacquemin, Ingrid ; Université de Liège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques
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