Uncertainty in forecasts of complex rule-based systems of travel demand: Comparative analysis of the Albatross/Feathers model system

This paper documents the results of a comparative analysis of model uncertainty of the
Albatross/Feathers model system for respectively the Rotterdam region, The Netherlands and
Antwerp region, Belgium. The assessment concerned the calculation of the coefficient of
variation for the daily distance travelled per person. The calculations are performed both at
the aggregated level and the disaggregated level (e.g. disaggregation by certain
socio-demographics). Results indicate that model uncertainty differs by socio-demographic
groups. Results of a regression analysis also indicate that in both regions uncertainty in daily
distance travelled per person is strongly correlated with the inverse square root of the relevant
socio-demographic population and the complexity of the classification, measured in terms of
the number of possible classes.