Article (Scientific journals)
Investigating the Variability in Daily Traffic Counts Trough Use of ARIMAX and SARIMAX Models: Assessing the Effect of Holidays on Two Site Locations
Cools, Mario; Moons, Elke; Wets, Geert
2009In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2136, p. 57-66
Peer reviewed
 

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Abstract :
[en] In this paper, daily traffic counts are explained and forecast by different modeling philosophies: an approach using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with explanatory variables (i.e., the ARIMAX model) and approaches using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model as well as a SARIMA model with explanatory variables (i.e., the SARIMAX model). Special emphasis is placed on the investigation of seasonality in daily traffic data and on the identification and comparison of holiday effects at different sites. To get insight into prior cyclic patterns in the daily traffic counts, spectral analysis provides the required framework to highlight periodicities in the data. The analyses use data from single inductive loop detectors, which were collected in 2003, 2004, and 2005. Four traffic count locations are investigated in this study: an upstream and a downstream traffic count site on a highway used extensively by commuters, and an upstream and a downstream traffic count site on a highway typically used for leisure travel. The different modeling techniques show that weekly cycles appear to determine the variation in daily traffic counts. The comparison between seasonal and holiday effects at different site locations reveals that both the ARIMAX and the SARIMAX modeling approaches are valid frameworks for identifying and quantifying possible influencing effects. The techniques yield the insight that holidays have a noticeable impact on highways extensively used by commuters, while having a more ambiguous impact on highways typically used for leisure travel. Future research challenges are the modeling of daily traffic counts on secondary roads and the simultaneous modeling of underlying reasons for travel and revealed traffic patterns.
Research center :
Lepur : Centre de Recherche sur la Ville, le Territoire et le Milieu rural - ULiège
LEMA - Local Environment Management and Analysis
Disciplines :
Civil engineering
Special economic topics (health, labor, transportation...)
Author, co-author :
Cools, Mario  ;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Moons, Elke;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Wets, Geert;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Language :
English
Title :
Investigating the Variability in Daily Traffic Counts Trough Use of ARIMAX and SARIMAX Models: Assessing the Effect of Holidays on Two Site Locations
Publication date :
2009
Journal title :
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
ISSN :
0361-1981
eISSN :
2169-4052
Publisher :
U.S. National Research Council, Washington, United States - District of Columbia
Volume :
2136
Pages :
57-66
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
Available on ORBi :
since 25 October 2012

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