Using hurdle models to create maps of prey densities in southeastern of Norway

Knowing prey distribution and density in areas where carnivores are present is an important condition to have a better understanding of carnivore movements (Karanth et al. 2004 ; Herfindal et al. 2005). Southeastern of Norway has recently been recolonized by the European Lynx (Lynx lynx) and the wolf (Canis lupus) and in order to be able to predict these carnivore movements, it is important to produce detailed models of their prey abundance and habitat use. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), red deer (Cervus elaphus), moose (Alces alces) and mountain hare (Lepus timidus) are commonly hunted by lynx and wolf in Norway (Odden et al. 2006, Wikenros 2001, Müller 2006) but even if these species are well present in the southeastern, no distribution maps are available yet. Using hurdle models, we create the prey maps and test the extent of predictive modeling. Finally, we discuss the limits existing when trying to develop and use predictive maps at large scale.