Harmonized Growth Models and Simulations of the Evolution of Pure Stands of Norway spruce, Larches and Douglas-fir for Southern Belgium (Wallonia).

In order to compare different silvicultural scenarios we have undertaken the development of a software that can simulate stand evolution in regards to their species composition, site characteristics and silvicultural operations. As a first approach we limited the scope of our work to even-aged and pure coniferous stands of the three most important coniferous species in Wallonia (southern part of Belgium): Norway spruce (Picea abies), douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziensii) and larches (Larix sp.). This presentation introduces carried out simulations and compare their outcomes. First we gathered data sets from the permanent regional inventory, from observation networks and experimental plots throughout Wallonia. Then we adjusted, for these species, harmonized and distance-independent models of dominant-height growth, tree diameter growth, mortality, and the distribution of tree diameter frequency before the first thinning. Next we implemented those models in the Capsis platform, and we simulated, for the three species, the evolution of virtual stands using different scenarios. On one hand the evolution was performed without thinning, and on the other hand we applied silvicultural scenarios that are commonly used in Wallonia. As a result these models highlight, for example, the great juvenile growth and sensibility to stands density of larches whereas Norway spruce behaves the opposite. Further work is however needed to predict and simulate wood quality and value. Once this will be achieved we will attempt to optimize silvicultural scenarios for the three species.