Triticum aestivum,winter wheat,; green area index, senescence; yield estimates, hemispherical photography; Triticum aestivum, blé d’hiver,; indice de surface foliaire, sénescence,; rendements des cultures, photographies hémisphériques
Abstract :
[en] A large number of agrometeorological models for crop yield assessment are available with various levels of complexity and empiricism. However, the current development of models for wheat yield forecasting does not always reflect the inclusion of the loss of valuable green area and its relation to biotic and abiotic processes in production situation. In this study the senescence phase of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is monitored through the GAI (Green Area Index), calculated from digital hemispherical photography taken over plots in Belgium, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg and France. Two curve-fitting functions (modified Gompertz and modified logistic) are used to describe the senescence phase. Metrics derived from these functions and characterizing this phase (i.e. the maximum value of GAI, the senescence rate and the time taken to reach either 37% or 50% of the green surface in the senescent phase) are related to final grain yields. The regression-based models calculated with these metrics showed that final yield could be estimated with a coefficient of determination of 0,83 and a RMSE of 0,48 t.ha-1. Such simple models may be considered as a first yield estimates that may be performed in order to provide a better integrated yield assessment in operational systems. Indeed, estimation of cereal-crop production, particularly wheat, is considered as a priority in most crop research programs due to the relevance of food grain to world agricultural production. [fr] La prise en compte de la diminution de la surface verte utile et de sa relation avec des processus biotiques et abiotiques pourrait s’avérer primordiale dans le développement de futurs modèles de prévision des rendements de blé dans le contexte actuel de réchauffement climatique. Dans notre étude la phase de décroissance de la surface verte du blé d’hiver (Triticum aestivum L.) est suivie à travers le GAI (Green Area Index), variable calculée à partir de photographies hémisphériques prises sur différentes parcelles en Belgique, au Grand-Duché de Luxembourg et en France. La cinétique de décroissance de cette variable est décrite à l’aide de deux fonctions d’ajustements (les fonctions Gompertz et logistique modifiées). Les paramètres issus de ces fonctions et caractérisant la phase de décroissance (i.e. la valeur maximum du GAI, le taux de sénescence et le temps mis pour atteindre soit 37% ou 50% de la surface verte utile en phase décroissante du GAI) sont mis en relation avec les rendements observés. Les modèles élaborés montrent que le rendement final en grains peut être bien estimé à partir de ces paramètres, avec un coefficient de détermination (R²) de l’ordre de 0,83 et un RMSE de 0,48 t.ha-1. Ces différents résultats rendent cette étude particulièrement intéressante pour une application dans un système opérationnel d’estimation du rendement du blé d’hiver à une échelle nationale ou régionale, l’estimation précoce de la production agricole à ces échelles étant plus que jamais au cœur d’enjeux économiques, géostratégiques et humanitaires importants.
Disciplines :
Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Kouadio, Amani Louis ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Doct. sc. (sc. & gest. env. - Bologne)
Djaby, Bakary ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences et gestion de l'environnement > Département des sciences et gestion de l'environnement
Grégory, Duveiller; Université Catholique de Louvain - UCL / Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for the Environment and Sustainability, Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit
El Jarroudi, Moussa ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences et gestion de l'environnement > Département des sciences et gestion de l'environnement
Tychon, Bernard ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences et gestion de l'environnement > Agrométéorologie (relation agriculture-environ. physique)
Language :
French
Title :
Cinétique de décroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du blé d’hiver
Alternative titles :
[en] Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area
Publication date :
June 2012
Journal title :
Biotechnologie, Agronomie, Société et Environnement
ISSN :
1370-6233
eISSN :
1780-4507
Publisher :
Presses Agronomiques de Gembloux, Gembloux, Belgium
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