Recent Behavior of the North Anatolian Fault: Insights from an Integrated Paleoseismological Dataset

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a right‐lateral plate boundary fault that arcs across northern Turkey for ∼1500 km. Almost the entire fault progressively ruptured in the 20th century, its cascading style indicating that stress from one fault rupture triggers fault rupture of adjacent segments. Using published paleoseismic investigations, this study integrates all of the existing information about the timing of paleoearthquakes on the NAF. Paleoseismic investigation data are compiled into a database, and for each site a Bayesian, ordering‐constrained age model is constructed in a consistent framework. Spatial variability of recurrence intervals suggests a spatial pattern in the behavior of earthquakes on the NAF that may correspond to the tectonic provinces within the Anatolian plate. In the west, the shear stress associated with the escaping Anatolian plate interplays with the tensile stress associated with the Aegean extensional province. Along this western transtensional section we recognize short recurrence intervals and switching between the furcated fault strands. The central section of the NAF is translational with little influence of fault‐normal stresses from other tectonic sources. This section tends to rupture in unison or close succession. The eastern section of the NAF is transpressional due to the compressional fault‐normal stress associated with the indenting Arabian plate. Along this section the recurrence intervals are bimodal, which we attribute to variable normal stress, although there are other possible causes.