Cedrus libani (A. Rich) distribution in Lebanon: Past, present and future

Long-term vegetation studies are needed to better predict the impact of future climate
change on vegetation structure and distribution. According to the IPCC scenario, the
Mediterranean region is expected to undergo significant climatic variability over the
course of this century. Cedrus libani (A. Rich), in particular, is currently distributed in
limited areas in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which are expected to be affected by
such climate change. In order to predict the impact of future global warming, we have used
fossil pollen data andmodel simulations. Palaeobotanical data show that C. libani has been
affected by both climate change and human activities. Populations of C. libani survived in
refugial zones when climatic conditions were less favourable and its range extended
during periods of more suitable climate conditions. Simulations of its future geographical
distribution for the year 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model show that only three
areas from Mount Lebanon may allow its survival. These results extrapolated for cedar
forests for the entire Eastern Mediterranean region show that forests in Syria are also
threatened by future global warming. In southern Turkey, cedar forests seem to be less
threatened. These results are expected to help in the long-term conservation of cedar
forests in the Near East.