[en] Recently, new cycles, associated with periods of 30 and 43 months, respectively, have been observed by the authors in surface air temperature time series, using a wavelet-based methodology. Although many evidences attest the validity of this method applied to climatic data, no systematic study of its efficiency has been carried out. Here, we estimate confidence levels for this approach and show that the observed cycles are significant. Taking these cycles into consideration should prove helpful in increasing the accuracy of the climate model projections of climate change and weather forecast.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Nicolay, Samuel ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de mathématique > Analyse - Analyse fonctionnelle - Ondelettes
Mabille, Georges ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Doct. sc. (géographie - Bologne)
Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Topoclimatologie
Erpicum, Michel ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Topoclimatologie
Language :
English
Title :
A statistical validation for the cycles found in air temperature data using a Morlet wavelet-based method
scite shows how a scientific paper has been cited by providing the context of the citation, a classification describing whether it supports, mentions, or contrasts the cited claim, and a label indicating in which section the citation was made.
Bibliography
Allen, M. R. and Robertson, A. W.: Distinguishing modulated oscillations from coloured noise in multivariate datasets, Clim. Dynam., 12, 775-784, 1996.
Arneodo, A., Argoul, F., Elezgaray, J., and Grasseau, G.: Wavelet transform analysis of fractals: application to nonequilibrium phase transitions, in: Nonlinear Dynamics, edited by: Turchetti, G., World Scientific, Singapore, 1988.
Daubechies, I.: Ten lectures on wavelets, SIAM, Philadelphia, 1992.
Freysz, E., Pouligny, B., Argoul, F., and Arneodo, A.: Optical wavelet transform of fractal aggregates, Phys. Rev. Lett., 64, 745-748, 1990.
Huang, N. E., Shen, Z., Long, S. R., Wu, M. L. C., Shih, H. H., Zheng, Q. N., Yen, N. C., Tung, C. C., and Liu, H. H.: The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis, Proc. R. Soc. Lon. Ser. A, 454, 903-995, 1998.
Kalney, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K.C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year reanalysis project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, 437-471, 1996.
Mabille, G. and Nicolay, S.: Multi-year cycles observed in air temperature data and proxy series, Eur. Phys. J.-Spec. Top., 174, 135-145, 2009.
Mann, M. E. and Lees, J.: Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection, Climatic Change, 33, 409-445, 1996.
Mann, M. E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., and Ammann, C.: Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12109, doi:10.1029/2006JD008272, 2007. (Pubitemid 47241631)
Maraun, D. and Kurths, J.: Cross wavelet analysis: significance testing and pitfalls, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 11, 505-514, doi:10.5194/npg-11-505- 2004, 2004.
Matyasovszky, I.: Improving the methodology for spectral analysis of climatic time series, Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0212-z, in press, 2010.
Nicolay, S., Mabille, G., Fettweis, X., and Erpicum, M.: 30 and 43 months period cycles found in air temperature time series using the Morlet wavelet method, Clim. Dynam., 33, 1117-1129, 2009.
Palüs, M. and Novotńa, D.: Quasi-biennial oscillations extracted from the monthly NAO index and temperature records are phase-synchronized, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 13, 287-296, doi:10.5194/npg-13-287-2006, 2006.
Percival, D. B. and Walden, A. T.: Spectral analysis for physical applications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1993.
Smith, D., Cusack, S., Colman, A., Folland, C., Harris, G., and Murphy, J.: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from global climate model, Science, 317, 796-799, 2007.
Similar publications
Sorry the service is unavailable at the moment. Please try again later.
This website uses cookies to improve user experience. Read more
Save & Close
Accept all
Decline all
Show detailsHide details
Cookie declaration
About cookies
Strictly necessary
Performance
Strictly necessary cookies allow core website functionality such as user login and account management. The website cannot be used properly without strictly necessary cookies.
This cookie is used by Cookie-Script.com service to remember visitor cookie consent preferences. It is necessary for Cookie-Script.com cookie banner to work properly.
Performance cookies are used to see how visitors use the website, eg. analytics cookies. Those cookies cannot be used to directly identify a certain visitor.
Used to store the attribution information, the referrer initially used to visit the website
Cookies are small text files that are placed on your computer by websites that you visit. Websites use cookies to help users navigate efficiently and perform certain functions. Cookies that are required for the website to operate properly are allowed to be set without your permission. All other cookies need to be approved before they can be set in the browser.
You can change your consent to cookie usage at any time on our Privacy Policy page.
