[en] Question: How to refine simulations based on a global vegetation model in order to apply it to regional scale? Location: Europe from 35degrees N to 71degrees N and 25degrees W to 70degrees E. Methods: Geographical ranges of European plants were georeferenced and used with monthly mean climatic data (diurnal temperature ranges, ground frost frequencies, precipitation, relative humidity, rain frequencies, amount of sunshine hours and temperature) and growing degree days to infer climatic boundaries for 320 taxa. We performed a discriminant analysis to define their potential geographic ranges. Hierarchical clustering was computed on potential ranges. Results: Clustering provided 25 Bioclimatic Affinity Groups (BAG) of plants consisting of 13 tree, seven shrub and five herb groups. These BAGs are characterized by different geographical ranges and climatic tolerances and requirements. Conclusion: The use of monthly data instead of annual values improved the prediction of potential distribution ranges and highlighted the importance of climate seasonality for defining the plant groups with accuracy. The BAGs are detailed enough to provide finer reconstructions and simulations of the vegetation at the regional scale.
Bar-Hen, A.; Université Aix-Marseille III > FST Saint Jerome, LATP
François, Louis ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques
Ghislain, M.; Université de Liège - ULiège > LPAP
Cheddadi, R.; Université de Montpellier 2 > ISEM
Language :
English
Title :
Refining vegetation simulation models: From plant functional types to bioclimatic affinity groups of plants
Anon. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., vander Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K. & Johnson, C.A. (eds.) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Booth, T.H., Jovanovic, T. & New, M. 2002. A new world mapping program to assist species selection. For. Ecol. Manage. 163: 111-117.
Botkin, D.B. 1993. Forest dynamics. An ecological model. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
Cheddadi, R., Guiot, J. & Jolly, D. 2001. The Mediterranean vegetation: what if the atmospheric CO2 increased ? Landscape Ecol. 16: 667-675.
Collingham, Y.C., Hill, M.O. & Huntley, B. 1996. The migration of sessile organisms: a simulation model with measurable parameters. J. Veg. Sci. 7: 831-846.
Cramer, W. 2002. Biome models. In: Mooney, H.A. & Canadell, J.G. (eds.) Encyclopedia of global environmental change. Vol. 2. The earth system: biological and ecological dimensions of global environmental change, pp. 1-5. Wiley International, Chichester, UK.
Cramer, W., Bondeau, A., Woodward, F.I., Prentice, I.C., Betts, R.A., Brovkin, V., Cox, P.M., Fisher, V., Foley, J.A., Friend, A.D., Kucharik, C., Lomas, M.R., Ramankutty, N., Sitch, S., Smith, B., White, A. & Young-Moiling, C. 2001. Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Global Change Biol. 7: 357-373.
de Noblet, N.I., Prentice, I.C., Joussaume, S., Texier, D., Botta, A. & Haxeltine, A. 1996. Possible role of atmospherebiosphere interactions in triggering the last glaciation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23: 3191-3194.
Foley, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N., Levis, S., Pollard, D., Sitch, S. & Haxeltine, A. 1996. An integrated biosphere model of land surface processes, terrestrial carbon balance, and vegetation dynamics. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10: 603-628.
François, L.M., Delire, C., Warnant, P. & Munhoven, G. 1998. Modeling the glacial-interglacial changes in the continental biosphere. Global Planet. Change 16-17: 37-52.
Guiot, J., Cheddadi, R., Prentice, I.C. & Jolly, D. 1996. A method of biome and land surface mapping from pollen data: Application to Europe 6000 years ago. Palaeoclimatology 1: 311-324.
Haxeltine, A. & Prentice, I.C. 1996. BIOME3: An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability, and competition among plant functional types. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10: 693-709.
Hicks, S., Tinsley, H., Huusko, A., Jensen, C., Hättestrand, M., Gerasimides, A. & Kvavadze, E. 2001. Some comments on spatial variation in arboreal pollen deposition: first records from the Pollen Monitoring Program (PMP) Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 117: 183-194.
Hubert, B., François, L., Warnant, P. & Strivay, D. 1998. Stochastic generation of meteorological variables and effects on global models of water and carbon cycles in vegetation and soils. J. Hydrol. 212-213: 318-334.
Hultén, E. & Fries, M. 1986. Atlas of North European vascular plants: north of the Tropic of Cancer I-III. Koeltz Scientific Books, Königstein, DE.
Jalas, J. & Suominen, J. (eds.). 1972, 1973, 1976, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1986, 1989, 1991, 1994. Atlas Florae Europaeae. Distribution of vascular plants in Europe. Vols. 1-10. The Committee for Mapping the Flora of Europe and Societas Biologica Fennica Vanamo, Helsinki, FI.
Jalas, J., Suominen, J. & Lampinen, R. (eds.) 1996. Atlas Florae Europaeae. Distribution of vascular plants in Europe. Vol. 11. The Committee for Mapping the Flora of Europe and Societas Biologica Fennica Vanamo, Helsinki, FI.
Jalas, J., Suominen, J., Lampinen, R. & Kurtto, A. (eds.) 1999. Atlas Florae Europaeae. Distribution of vascular plants in Europe. Vol. 12. The Committee for Mapping the Flora of Europe and Societas Biologica Fennica Vanamo, Helsinki, FI.
Jolly, D., Prentice, I.C., Bonnefille, R., Ballouche, A., Bengo, M., Brenac, P., Buchet, G., Burney, D., Cazet, J.-P., Cheddadi, R., Edorh, T., Elenga, H., Elmoutaki, S., Guiot, J., Laarif, F., Lamb, H., Lezine, A.-M., Maley, J., Mbenza, M., Peyron, O., Reille, M., Reynaud-Ferrera, I., Riollet, G., Ritchie, J.C., Roche, E., Scott, L., Ssemmanda, I., Straka, H., Umer,M., Van Campo, E., Vilimumbala, S., Vincens, A. & Waller, M. 1998. Biome reconstruction from pollen and plant macrofossil data for Africa and the Arabian peninsula at 0 and 6 ka. J. Biogeogr. 25: 1007-1027.
Karl, T.R. & Trenberth, K.E. 2003. Modern global climate change. Science 302: 1719-1723.
Kienast, F. 1987. FORECE - A forest succession model for southern central Europe. Oak Ridge natl. lab. 2989: 1-74.
Kutzbach, J., Gallimore, R., Harrison, S., Behling, P., Selin, R. & Laarif, F. 1998. Climate and biome simulations for the past 21,000 years. Quart. Sci. Rev. 17: 473-506.
New, M., Hulme, M. & Jones, P. 1999. Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: Development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Clim. 12: 829-856.
Olson, J.S., Watts, J.A. & Allison, L.J. 1983. Carbon in live vegetation of major world ecosystems. ORNL-5862, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, US.
Otto, D., Rasse, D., Kaplan, J., Warnant, P. & François, L. 2002. Biospheric carbon stocks reconstructed at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison between general circulation models using prescribed and computed sea surface temperatures. Global Planet. Change 33: 117-138.
Peng, C., Guiot, J., van Campo, E. & Cheddadi, R. 1995. Temporal and spatial variations of terrestrial biomes and carbon storage since 13.000 Yr BP in Europe: reconstruction from pollen data and statistical models. Water Air Soil Pollut. 82: 375-390.
Prentice, I.C. & Sykes, M.T. 1995. Vegetation geography and carbon storage changes. In: Woodwell, G.M. & Mackenzie, F.T. (eds.) Biotic feedbacks in the global climatic system: will the warming feed the warming? pp. 304-312. Oxford University Press, New York, NY, US.
Prentice, I.C. & Webb III, T. 1998. BIOME 6000: reconstructing global mid-Holocene vegetation patterns from palaeoecological records. J. Biogeogr. 25: 997-1005.
Prentice, I.C., Cramer, W., Harrison, S.P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R.A. & Solomon, A.M. 1992. A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134.
Prentice, I.C., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly, D. & Cheddadi, R. 1996. Reconstructing biomes from palaeocological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Clim. Dyn. 12: 185-194.
Prentice, I.C., Harrison, S.P., Jolly, D. & Guiot, J. 1998. The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: comparison of model simulations and pollen based reconstructions. Quat. Sci. Rev. 17: 659-668.
Prentice, I.C., Jolly, D. & BIOME 6000 Participants. 2000. MidHolocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa. J. Biogeogr. 27: 507-519.
Punt, W., Blackmore, S., Nilsson, S. & Le Thomas, A. 1994. Glossary of pollen and spore terminology. LPP Foundation, Utrecht, NL.
Rameau, J.C., Mansion, D., Dumé, G., Lecointe, A., Timbal, J., Dupont, P. & Keller, R. 1993. Flore forestière française. Guide écologique illustré. Institut pour le développement forestier, Dijon-Quetigny, FR.
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I.C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J.O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M.T., Thonicke, K. & Venevsky, S. 2003. Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biol. 9: 161-185.
Sykes, M.T., Prentice, I.C. & Cramer, W. 1996. A bioclimatic model for the potential distributions of north European tree species under present and future climates. J. Biogeogr. 23: 203-233.
Tarasov, P.E., Cheddadi, R., Guiot, J., Bottema, S., Peyron, O., Belmonte, J., Ruiz-Sanchez, V., Saadi, F. & Brewer, S. 1998. A method to determine warm and cool steppe biomes from pollen data; application to the Mediterranean and Kazakhstan regions. J. Quat. Sci. 13: 335-344.
Thuiller, W., Araùjo, M.B. & Lavorel, S. 2003. Generalized models vs. classification tree analysis: Predicting spatial distributions of plant species at different scales. J. Veg. Sci. 14: 669-680.
Venables, W.N. & Ripley, B.D. 2002. Modern Applied Statistics with S. 4th ed. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY, US.
Ward, J.H. 1963. Hierarchical Grouping to Optimize an Objective Function. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 58: 236-244.
Warnant, P., François, L., Strivay, D. & Gérard, J.-C. 1994. CARAIB: aglobal model of terrestrial biological productivity. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 8: 255-270.
Woodward, F.I. 1992. A review of the effects of the climate on vegetation: ranges, competition, and composition. In: Peters, R.L. & Lovejoy, T.E. (eds.) Global warming and biological diversity, pp. 105-123. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, US.