Positive feedbacks drive the Greenland ice sheet evolution in millennial-length MAR–GISM simulations under a high-end warming scenario

Paice, Chloë; Fettweis, Xavier; Huybrechts, Philippe

doi:10.5194/tc-20-309-2026

Article (Scientific journals)

Positive feedbacks drive the Greenland ice sheet evolution in millennial-length MAR–GISM simulations under a high-end warming scenario

Paice, Chloë; Fettweis, Xavier; Huybrechts, Philippe

2026 • In The Cryosphere, 20 (1), p. 309-332

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/2268/340155

DOI
10.5194/tc-20-309-2026

Files (1)Send to Details Statistics Bibliography Similar publications

Files

Full Text

tc-20-309-2026.pdf

Publisher postprint (15.45 MB)

Download

All documents in ORBi are protected by a user license.

Send to

RIS BibTex APA Chicago Permalink X Linkedin

Details

Abstract :

[en] Abstract. Understanding the complex interactions between the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and the atmosphere is crucial for projecting its future sea level contribution. However, studying these interactions remains challenging, as it requires high-resolution climate or atmospheric models to be run over extended timescales before their influence on the ice sheet–climate system becomes evident. Therefore, in this study, we coupled an ice sheet model (GISM) with a regional climate model (MAR) and conducted millennial-length simulations. The simulations consist of a zero-way, a one-way, and a two-way coupled configuration, which were forced by the IPSL-CM6A-LR global climate model output under the SSP5-8.5 scenario until 2300 and extended until the year 3000 by randomly sampling the last 51 years of forcing. They represent the first coupled simulations of an ice sheet model (ISM) and regional climate model (RCM) that extend beyond the centennial timescale and allow us to assess the evolving role of ice sheet–atmosphere feedbacks. Our results reveal that the ice sheet evolution is determined by positive as well as negative feedback mechanisms, that act over different timescales. The main observed negative feedback in our simulations is related to changing wind speeds at the ice sheet margin, due to which the integrated ice mass loss differs by only 2.4 % by 2300 between the two- and one-way coupled simulations, regardless of the differently evolving ice sheet geometries. Beyond this time however, positive feedback mechanisms related to decreasing surface elevation, namely the melt–elevation feedback and changes in cloudiness and orographic precipitation, dominate the ice sheet–climate system and strongly accelerate the integrated ice mass loss in the two-way coupled simulation. As a result, the ice sheet has almost entirely disappeared by the end of the two-way coupled simulation, with a sea level contribution of 7.135 m s.l.e., compared to significantly smaller contributions of 5.635 and 5.122 m s.l.e. for the one-way and zero-way coupled simulations, respectively. This highlights the importance of accurately representing ice sheet–atmosphere interactions for long-term assessments of the Greenland ice sheet and climate.

Research Center/Unit :

SPHERES - ULiège

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Paice, Chloë ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Huybrechts, Philippe

Language :

French

Title :

Positive feedbacks drive the Greenland ice sheet evolution in millennial-length MAR–GISM simulations under a high-end warming scenario

Publication date :

16 January 2026

Journal title :

The Cryosphere

ISSN :

1994-0416

eISSN :

1994-0424

Publisher :

Copernicus GmbH

Volume :

Issue :

Pages :

309-332

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Additional URL :

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/309/2026/tc-20-309-2026.pdf

Funders :

FWO - Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vlaanderen

Available on ORBi :

since 20 January 2026

Statistics

Number of views

12 (1 by ULiège)

Number of downloads

3 (0 by ULiège)

More statistics

Scopus citations^®

Scopus citations^®
without self-citations

OpenCitations

OpenAlex citations

Bibliography

Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallee, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., vanWessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979-2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281-296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019.
Amory, C., Kittel, C., Le Toumelin, L., Agosta, C., Delhasse, A., Favier, V., and Fettweis, X.: Performance of MAR (v3.11) in simulating the drifting-snow climate and surface mass balance of Adelie Land, East Antarctica, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3487-3510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, 2021.
Andernach, M., Kapsch, M.-L., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration on atmosphere and ocean disentangled, Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 451-474, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025, 2025.
Aschwanden, A., Aoalgeirsdóttir, G., and Khroulev, C.: Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states, The Cryosphere, 7, 1083-1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013, 2013.
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., Mottram, R., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav9396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019.
Bennartz, R., Shupe, M. D., Turner, D. D., Walden, V. P., Steffen, K., Cox, C. J., Kulie, M. S., Miller, N. B., and Pettersen, C.: July 2012 Greenland melt extent enhanced by low-level liquid clouds, Nature, 496, 83-86, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12002, 2013.
Berends, C. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., van den Akker, T., and Lipscomb, W. H.: Compensating errors in inversions for subglacial bed roughness: same steady state, different dynamic response, The Cryosphere, 17, 1585-1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023.
Blatter, H.: Velocity and stress fields in grounded glaciers: A simple algorithm for including deviatoric stress gradients, J. Glaciol., 41, 333-344, https://doi.org/10.3189/S002214300001621X, 1995.
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., DAndrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthe, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, L. E., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Levy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottle, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thieblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020.
Brun, E., David, P., Sudul, M., and Brunot, G.: A numerical model to simulate snow-cover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forecasting, J. Glaciol., 38, 13-22, https://doi.org/10.3189/s0022143000009552, 1992.
Charbit, S., Paillard, D., and Ramstein, G.: Amount of CO2 emissions irreversibly leading to the total melting of Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033472, 2008.
Citterio, M. and Ahlstrom, A. P.: Brief communication "The aerophotogrammetric map of Greenland ice masses", The Cryosphere, 7, 445-449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-445-2013, 2013.
Davini, P., von Hardenberg, J., Filippi, L., and Provenzale, A.: Impact of Greenland orography on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 871-879, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062668, 2015.
Delhasse, A., Kittel, C., Amory, C., Hofer, S., van As, D., S. Fausto, R., and Fettweis, X.: Brief communication: Evaluation of the near-surface climate in ERA5 over the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 957-965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-957-2020, 2020.
Delhasse, A., Beckmann, J., Kittel, C., and Fettweis, X.: Coupling MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional) with PISM (Parallel Ice Sheet Model) mitigates the positive melt-elevation feed back, The Cryosphere, 18, 633-651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024.
De Ridder, K. and Gallee, H.: Land surface-induced regional climate change in Southern Israel, J. Appl. Meteorol., 37, 1470-1485, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1998)0371470:LSIRCC2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Edwards, T. L., Fettweis, X., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Gregory, J. M., Hoffman, M., Huybrechts, P., Payne, A. J., Perego, M., Price, S., Quiquet, A., and Ritz, C.: Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance-elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 8, 195-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014.
Feenstra, T., Vizcaino, M., Wouters, B., Petrini, M., Sellevold, R., and Thayer-Calder, K.: Role of elevation feedbacks and ice sheet-climate interactions on future Greenland ice sheet melt, The Cryosphere, 19, 2289-2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2289-2025, 2025.
Fettweis, X., Box, J. E., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Lang, C., van As, D., Machguth, H., and Gallee, H.: Reconstructions of the 1900-2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model, The Cryosphere, 11, 1015-1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, 2017.
Fettweis, X., Hofer, S., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Amory, C., Aoki, T., Berends, C. J., Born, A., Box, J. E., Delhasse, A., Fujita, K., Gierz, P., Goelzer, H., Hanna, E., Hashimoto, A., Huybrechts, P., Kapsch, M.-L., King, M. D., Kittel, C., Lang, C., Langen, P. L., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Liston, G. E., Lohmann, G., Mernild, S. H., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Mottram, R. H., Niwano, M., Noël, B., Ryan, J. C., Smith, A., Streffing, J., Tedesco, M., van de Berg,W. J., van den Broeke, M., van deWal, R. S.W., van Kampenhout, L., Wilton, D., Wouters, B., Ziemen, F., and Zolles, T.: GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980-2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 3935-3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020.
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., A?algeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallee, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021.
Franco, B., Fettweis, X., Lang, C., and Erpicum, M.: Impact of spatial resolution on the modelling of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance between 1990-2010, using the regional climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 6, 695-711, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-695-2012, 2012.
Franco, B., Fettweis, X., and Erpicum, M.: Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt, The Cryosphere, 7, 1-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1-2013, 2013.
Furst, J. J., Rybak, O., Goelzer, H., De Smedt, B., de Groen, P., and Huybrechts, P.: Improved convergence and stability properties in a three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1133-1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1133-2011, 2011.
Furst, J. J., Goelzer, H., and Huybrechts, P.: Effect of higherorder stress gradients on the centennial mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 7, 183-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-183-2013, 2013.
Furst, J. J., Goelzer, H., and Huybrechts, P.: Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming, The Cryosphere, 9, 1039-1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015, 2015.
Fyke, J., Sergienko, O., Löfverström, M., Price, S., and Lenaerts, J. T.: An overview of interactions and feedbacks between ice sheets and the Earth system, Rev. Geophys., 56, 361-408, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000600, 2018.
Gallee, H. and Schayes, G.: Development of a Three-Dimensional Meso-Primitive Equation Model: Katabatic Winds Simulation in the Area of Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 671-685, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)1220671:DOATDM2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Furst, J. J., Nick, F. M., Andersen, M. L., Edwards, T. L., Fettweis, X., Payne, A. J., and Shannon, S. R.: Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations, J. Glaciol., 59, 733-749, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182, 2013.
Goelzer, H., Robinson, A., Seroussi, H., and Van De Wal, R. S. W.: Recent Progress in Greenland Ice Sheet Modelling, Current Climate Change Reports, 3, 291-302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0073-y, 2017.
Goelzer, H., Coulon, V., Pattyn, F., de Boer, B., and van de Wal, R.: Brief communication: On calculating the sea-level contribution in marine ice-sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 833-840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020a.
Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Le clech, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Little, C., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Quiquet, A., Ruckamp, M., Schlegel, N.-J., Slater, D. A., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Tarasov, L., van deWal, R., and van den Broeke, M.: The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multimodel ensemble study of ISMIP6, The Cryosphere, 14, 3071-3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020b.
Goelzer, H., Langebroek, P. M., Born, A., Hofer, S., Haubner, K., Petrini, M., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., and Thayer-Calder, K.: Interactive coupling of a Greenland ice sheet model in NorESM2, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3045, 2025.
Graversen, R., Drijfhout, S., Hazeleger, W., van de Wal, R., Bintanja, R., and Helsen, H.: Greenlands contribution to global sealevel rise by the end of the 21st century, Clim. Dynam., 37, 1427-1442, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0918-8, 2010.
Gregory, J. and Huybrechts, P.: Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 364, 1709-1731, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796, 2006.
Gregory, J. M., George, S. E., and Smith, R. S.: Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 4299-4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020, 2020.
Greve, R., Saito, F., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Initial results of the SeaRISE numerical experiments with the models SICOPOLIS and IcIES for the Greenland ice sheet, Ann. Glaciol., 52, 23-30, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756411797252068, 2011.
Hanna, E., Huybrechts, P., Janssens, I., Cappelen, J., Steffen, K., and Stephens, A.: Runoff and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: 1958-2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D13108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005641, 2005.
Hakuba, M. Z., Folini, D.,Wild, M., and Schar, C.: Impact of Greenlands topographic height on precipitation and snow accumulation in idealized simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D09107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017052, 2012.
Haubner, K., Goelzer, H., and Born, A.: Limited global effect of climate-Greenland ice sheet coupling in NorESM2 under a high-emission scenario, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3785, 2025.
Hindmarsch, R. C. A.: A numerical comparison of approximations to the Stokes equations used in ice sheet and glacier modelling, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 109, F01012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JF000065, 2004.
Hofer, S., Tedstone, A. J., Fettweis, X., and Bamber, J. L.: Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland ice sheet, Sci. Adv., 3, e1700584, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700584, 2017.
Hofer, S., Tedstone, A. J., Fettweis, X., and Bamber, J. L.: Cloud microphysics and circulation anomalies control differences in future Greenland melt, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 523-528, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0507-8, 2019.
Hofer, S., Lang, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Delhasse, A., Tedstone, A., and Fettweis, X.: Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6, Nat. Commun., 11, 1-11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8, 2020.
Huybrechts, P., Letreguilly, A., and Reeh, N.: The Greenland ice sheet and greenhouse warming, Global Planet. Change, 3, 399-412, https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-0182(91)90174-P, 1991.
Huybrechts, P.: Sea-level changes at the LGM from ice-dynamic reconstructions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the glacial cycles, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 203-231, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00082-8, 2002.
Jakobsson, M., Mayer, L., Coakley, B., Dowdeswell, J. A., Forbes, S., Fridman, B., Hodnesdal, H., Noormets, R., Pedersen, R., Rebesco, M., Schenke, H. W., Zarayskaya, Y., Accettella, D., Armstrong, A., Anderson, R. M., Bienhoff, P., Camerlenghi, A., Church, I., Edwards, M., Gardner, J. V., Hall, J. K., Hell, B., Hestvik, O., Kristoffersen, Y., Marcussen, C., Mohammad, R., Mosher, D., Nghiem, S. V., Pedrosa, M. T., Travaglini, P. G., and Weatherall, P.: The International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean (IBCAO) Version 3.0, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L12609, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl052219, 2012.
Janssens, I. and Huybrechts, P.: The treatment of meltwater retention in mass-balance parameterizations of the Greenland ice sheet, Ann. Glaciol., 31, 133-140, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756400781819941, 2000.
Khan, S. A., Aschwanden, A., Bjork, A. A., Wahr, J., Kjeldsen, K. K., and Kjær, K. H.: Greenland ice sheet mass balance: A review, Rep. Prog. Phys., 78, 046801, https://doi.org/10.1088/0034-4885/78/4/046801, 2015.
Kittel, C., Amory, C., Agosta, C., Jourdain, N. C., Hofer, S., Delhasse, A., Doutreloup, S., Huot, P.-V., Lang, C., Fichefet, T., and Fettweis, X.: Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 15, 1215-1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, 2021.
Lang, C., Fettweis, X., and Erpicum, M.: Stable climate and surface mass balance in Svalbard over 1979-2013 despite the Arctic warming, The Cryosphere, 9, 83-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-83-2015, 2015.
Le clech, S., Charbit, S., Quiquet, A., Fettweis, X., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., Wyard, C., and Ritz, C.: Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet-Atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model, The Cryosphere, 13, 373-395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019a.
Le clech, S., Quiquet, A., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., and Ritz, C.: A rapidly converging initialisation method to simulate the present-day Greenland ice sheet using the GRISLI ice sheet model (version 1.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2481-2499, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019, 2019b.
Lenaerts, J. T., Gettelman, A., Van Tricht, K., van Kampenhout, L., and Miller, N. B.: Impact of cloud physics on the Greenland ice sheet Near-Surface climate: A study with the Community Atmosphere Model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031470, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031470, 2020.
Madsen, M. S., Yang, S., A?algeirsdóttir, G., Svendsen, S. H., Rodehacke, C. B., and Ringgaard, I. M.: The role of an interactive Greenland ice sheet in the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth-PISM, Clim. Dynam., 59, 1189-1211, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06184-6, 2022.
Maure, D., Kittel, C., Lambin, C., Delhasse, A., and Fettweis, X.: Spatially heterogeneous effect of climate warming on the Arctic land ice, The Cryosphere, 17, 4645-4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, 2023.
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571-3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020.
Morlighem, M., Williams, C. N., Rignot, E., An, L., Arndt, J. E., Bamber, J. L., Catania, G., Chauche, N., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dorschel, B., Fenty, I., Hogan, K., Howat, I., Hubbard, A., Jakobsson, M., Jordan, T. M., Kjeldsen, K. K., Millan, R., Mayer, L., Mouginot, J., Noël, B. P., OCofaigh, C., Palmer, S., Rysgaard, S., Seroussi, H., Siegert, M. J., Slabon, P., Straneo, F., van den Broeke, M. R., Weinrebe, W., Wood, M., and Zinglersen, K. B.: BedMachine v3: complete bed topography and ocean bathymetry mapping of Greenland from multibeam echo sounding combined with mass conservation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11051-11061, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074954, 2017.
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., Bjork, A. A., Van Den Broeke, M., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., Noël, B., Scheuchl, B., and Wood, M.: Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 9239-9244, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904242116, 2019.
Otosaka, I. N., Shepherd, A., Ivins, E. R., Schlegel, N.-J., Amory, C., van den Broeke, M. R., Horwath, M., Joughin, I., King, M. D., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Rignot, E., Scambos, T., Simon, K. M., Smith, B. E., Sorensen, L. S., Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P. L., A, G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrom, A. P., Blazquez, A., Colgan, W., Engdahl, M. E., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallee, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Gourmelen, N., Groh, A., Gunter, B. C., Harig, C., Helm, V., Khan, S. A., Kittel, C., Konrad, H., Langen, P. L., Lecavalier, B. S., Liang, C.-C., Loomis, B. D., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S. H., Mottram, R., Mouginot, J., Nilsson, J., Noël, B., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Roca, M., Sasgen, I., Save, H. V., Seo, K.-W., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E. J. O., Schröder, L., Simonsen, S. B., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T. C., Vishwakarma, B. D., van Wessem, J. M., Wiese, D., van der Wal, W., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597-1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023.
Paice, C.: Main output data from Paice et al. "Positive feedbacks drive the Greenland ice sheet evolution in millennial-length MAR-GISM simulations under a high-end warming scenario" in The Cryosphere (Version v1), Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15386343, 2025.
Pattyn, F.: A new three-dimensional higher-order thermomechanical ice sheet model: Basic sensitivity, ice stream development, and ice flow across subglacial lakes, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 108, 2382, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB002329, 2003.
Rahlves, C., Goelzer, H., Born, A., and Langebroek, P. M.: Historically consistent mass loss projections of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 19, 1205-1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, 2025.
Ridley, J., Huybrechts, P., Gregory, J., and Lowe, J.: Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate, J. Climate, 18, 3409-3427, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3482.1, 2005.
Ridley, J., Gregory, J. M., Huybrechts, P., and Lowe, J.: Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet, Clim. Dynam., 35, 1065-1073, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0646-0, 2010.
Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A.: Greenland ice sheet model parameters constrained using simulations of the Eemian Interglacial, Clim. Past, 7, 381-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-381-2011, 2011.
Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A.: Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 429-432, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1449, 2012.
Sasgen, I., van den Broeke, M., Bamber, J., Rignot, E., Sorensen, L., Wouters, B., Martinec, Z., Velicogna, I., and Simonsen, S.: Timing and origin of recent regional ice-mass loss in Greenland, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 333-334, 293-303, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.03.033, 2012.
Slater, D. A., Straneo, F., Felikson, D., Little, C. M., Goelzer, H., Fettweis, X., and Holte, J.: Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting, The Cryosphere, 13, 2489-2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, 2019.
Solgaard, A. M. and Langen, P. L.: Multistability of the Greenland ice sheet and the effects of an adaptive mass balance formulation, Clim. Dynam., 39, 1599-1612, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1305-4, 2012.
Toniazzo, T., Gregory, J., and Huybrechts, P.: Climatic impact of a Greenland deglaciation and its possible irreversibility, J. Climate, 17, 21-33, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)0170021:CIOAGD2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Van Breedam, J., Goelzer, H., and Huybrechts, P.: Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953-976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020.
Van den Broeke, M. R. and Gallee, H.: Observation and simulation of barrier winds at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1365-1383, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712253407, 1996.
Van Tricht, K., Lhermitte, S., Lenaerts, J. T., Gorodetskaya, I. V., LEcuyer, T. S., Noël, B., van den Broeke, M. R., Turner, D. D., and van Lipzig, N. M.: Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff, Nat. Commun., 7, 10266, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10266, 2016.
Vizcaíno, M., Mikolajewicz, U., Jungclaus, J., and Schurgers, G.: Climate modification by future ice sheet changes and consequences for ice sheet mass balance, Clim. Dynam., 34, 301-324, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0591-y, 2010.
Vizcaíno, M., Lipscomb, W. H., Sacks, W. J., and van den Broeke, M.: Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes, J. Climate, 27, 215-226, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00588.1, 2014.
Vizcaíno, M., Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., Rodehacke, C. B., Greve, R., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Coupled simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet and climate change up to AD 2300, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 3927-3935, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061142, 2015.
Wyard, C.: Évaluation de la pertinence du couplage entre le modele de circulation regionale MAR, et le modele de calotte glaciaire GRISLI, sur le Groenland, Master thesis, Universite de Liege, 95 pp., https://hdl.handle.net/2268/172823, 2015.
Zeitz, M., Reese, R., Beckmann, J., Krebs-Kanzow, U., andWinkelmann, R.: Impact of the melt-Albedo feedback on the future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet with PISM-dEBM-simple, The Cryosphere, 15, 5739-5764, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, 2021.