Climate change; Crassostrea sikamea; Distribution pattern; Ecological niche; oyster
Abstract :
[en] Global climate change drives species redistribution, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem heterogeneity. The Kumamoto oyster, Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928), one of the most promising aquaculture species because of its delayed reproductive timing, was once prevalent in southern China. In this study, an ensemble species distribution model was employed to analyze the distribution range shift and ecological niche dynamics of C. sikamea along China's coastline under the current and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6-8.5 covering 2050 s and 2100 s). The model results indicated that the current habitat distribution for C. sikamea consists of a continuous stretch extending from the coastlines of Hainan Province to the northern shores of Jiangsu Province. By the 2050 s, the distribution range will stabilize at its southern end along the coast of Hainan Province, while expanding northward to cover the coastal areas of Shandong Province, showing a more dramatic trend of contraction in the south and invasion in the north by the 2100 s. In RCP8.5, the southern end retracts to the coasts of Guangdong, whereas the northern end covers all of China's coastal areas north of 34°N. C. sikamea can maintain relatively stable ecological niche characteristics, while it may occupy different ecological niche spaces under future climate conditions. Significant niche expansion will occur in lower temperature. We concluded C. sikamea habitats are susceptible to climate change. The rapid northward expansion of C. sikamea may open new possibilities for oyster farming in China, but it will also have important consequences for the ecological balance and biodiversity of receiving areas. It's imperative that we closely examine and strategize to address these repercussions for a win-win situation.
Disciplines :
Aquatic sciences & oceanology
Author, co-author :
Liu, Bingxian; Department of Marine Organism Taxonomy & Phylogeny, Institute of Oceanology, Chine Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, PR China, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China
Liu, Zhenqiang; Department of Marine Organism Taxonomy & Phylogeny, Institute of Oceanology, Chine Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, PR China, School of Marine Science and Engineering, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266237, PR China
Li, Cui; Department of Marine Organism Taxonomy & Phylogeny, Institute of Oceanology, Chine Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, PR China, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China
Yu, Haolin ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Freshwater and OCeanic science Unit of reSearch (FOCUS) ; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, PR China
Wang, Haiyan; Department of Marine Organism Taxonomy & Phylogeny, Institute of Oceanology, Chine Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, PR China, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China. Electronic address: haiyanwang@qdio.ac.cn
Language :
English
Title :
Geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) in China's coastal regions under climate change.
This work was partly supported by grants of the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( 42076092 , 41776179 ), National Key Research and Development Program of China ( 2022YFD2401301 , 2022FY100304 ), Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ( XDB42000000 ), Earmarked Fund for Modern Agro-industry Technology Research System ( CARS-47 ).
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