Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics; Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract :
[en] Coral reefs are under threat due to climate change and ocean acidification. However, large uncertainties remain concerning future carbon dioxide emissions, climate change and the associated impacts on coral reefs. While most previous studies have used climate model outputs to compute future coral reef carbonate production, we use a coral reef carbonate production module embedded in a global carbon-climate model. This enables the simulation of the response of coral reefs to projected changes in physical and chemical conditions at finer temporal resolution. The use of a fast-intermediate complexity model also permits the simulation of a large range of possible futures by considering different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and different climate sensitivities (hence different levels of warming for a given level of acidification), as well as the possibility of corals adapting their thermal bleaching thresholds. We show that without thermal adaptation, global coral reef carbonate production decreases to less than 25 % of historical values in most scenarios over the 21st century, with limited further declines between 2100 and 2300 irrespective of the climate sensitivity. With thermal adaptation, there is far greater scenario variability in projections of reef carbonate production. Under high-emission scenarios the rate of 21st century declines is attenuated, with some global carbonate production declines delayed until the 22nd century. Under high-mitigation scenarios, however, global coral reef carbonate production can recover in the 21st and 22nd centuries and thereafter persist at 50 %-90 % of historical values, provided that the climate sensitivity is moderate.
Research Center/Unit :
SPHERES - ULiège
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Bouttes, Nathaelle ; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Kwiatkowski, Lester ; LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France
Berger, Manon ; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Brovkin, Victor ; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany ; CEN, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Munhoven, Guy ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophysique, géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Labo de physique atmosphérique et planétaire (LPAP)
Language :
English
Title :
Projections of coral reef carbonate production from a global climate-coral reef coupled model
H2020 - 951288 - Q-ARCTIC - Quantify disturbance impacts on feedbacks between Arctic permafrost and global climate HE - 101137673 - TipESM - Exploring Tipping Points and Their Impacts Using Earth System Models
Name of the research project :
SEdiment REsponse to NATural and Anthropogenic carbon cycle perturbations — SERENATA The Interglacial CO2 mystery — TICMY
Funders :
F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique ERC - European Research Council ANR - Agence Nationale de la Recherche European Union
Funding number :
CDR J.0123.19; 951288; 101137673; 273305
Funding text :
Financial support for this work was provided by the Belgian Fund for Scientific Research – F.R.S.-FNRS (project SERENATA, grant no. CDR J.0123.19). Guy Munhoven is a research associate with the Belgian Fund for Scientific Research – F.R.S.-FNRS. Victor Brovkin acknowledges funding by the European Research Council (ERC) as part of the Q-Arctic project (grant agreement no. 951288). Lester Kwiatkowski acknowledges funding by the European Research Council (ERC) as part of the TipESM project (grant agreement no. 101137673) and the ENS Chanel research chair. The authors acknowledge the ANR – FRANCE (French National Research Agency) for its financial support of the TICMY project no. 273305.
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