Decarbonising the Glass Industry: A Comprehensive Techno-Economic Assessment of Low-Emission Pathways

The glass industry faces critical decarbonisation challenges due to high energy demand and reliance on fossil fuels. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic analysis of diverse decarbonisation pathways for flat glass production, including electrification, energy efficiency, fuel switching and carbon capture and storage (CCS). A multi-scenario mapping explores sensitivity to future energy and carbon prices, while uncertainty quantification (UQ) assesses economic resilience under market volatility. From the results, a hybrid furnace (Hybfur), combining oxy-combustion and partial electrification, reduces emissions by 33% compared to conventional gas-fired furnaces (NGfur). All-electric (ELfur) and hydrogen-fired (H2fur) furnaces reduce emissions by 41% and 50%, respectively, eliminating combustion emissions. CCS achieves 50–74% emissions reductions, with a 5–22% energy demand increase. While NGfur remains cost-effective today, it faces a 57% total annual cost (TAC) increase in the 2050 scenario (scenario with high-carbon & low-renewable prices). Integrating CCS, though cost-intensive today, moderates the TAC increase in 2050. Hybfur achieves 40% and 20% lower TAC with and without CCS, respectively, compared to NGfur. ELfur, though currently expensive, achieves a 25% TAC reduction by 2050. Multi-scenario mapping shows that hybrid and oxy-fuel CCS configurations dominate across a wide range of future price conditions, whereas full electrification and hydrogen pathways require significant energy price reductions to become viable. Uncertainty analysis confirms that hybrid configurations maintain the highest probability of economic competitiveness under evolving market conditions. These findings highlight partial electrification as a key decarbonisation strategy, with CCS essential for deep emissions cuts and economic resilience under stringent climate policies.