Microsimulation in Decision Support Systems: Advancing Demographic Forecasting

The use of simulations and analytical frameworks as decision-support tools has demonstrated significant potential across various domains, including healthcare and transportation. This progress is increasingly facilitated by advancements in computational power and the growing availability of data. In many instances, assessing the impact of a decision requires projections for future years, making accurate forecasting essential.
Macro simulations typically estimate aggregated counts without accounting for individual-level dynamics. However, when evaluating the effects of specific transportation policies or healthcare reforms, for example, it is crucial to incorporate detailed information on individuals’ locations and household structures. Micro simulations address this need by modelling individuals separately, allowing for a more granular analysis.
Several countries, such as Austria, have already integrated micro simulations into official demographic projections. In Belgium, we have developed a spatial micro simulation model that forecasts the complete Belgian population at the individual level until 2050. This model includes household structures and municipalities of residence, providing a comprehensive demographic projection framework. The Walloon region has adopted this framework for various projection purposes, such as estimating the future demand for retirement home beds until 2050, thereby enabling policymakers to adapt service accordingly.