The champagne curve of climate and development inequalities

The article examines the correlation between per capita consumption-based CO2 emissions and the Human Development Index (HDI). The relationship follows a ‘Champagne Curve’ resembling champagne spraying from a freshly sabred bottle: initially, HDI rises with emissions but levels off beyond a certain threshold. Countries with low HDIs (below 0.6) exhibit relatively uniform per capita CO2 emissions, whereas those with higher HDIs (above 0.8) show much greater variation. Our findings indicate that beyond a certain HDI level, additional carbon consumption no longer contributes to well-being. This suggests that once a country reaches a high level of development, energy-saving and efficiency measures can be implemented without reducing individual well-being. Moreover, our results highlight the need for a differentiated approach to climate policy by categorizing countries into three groups: advanced, moderate, and limited transformation capacity. This classification could facilitate a more equitable implementation of climate policies, such as carbon pricing, helping to combat global warming while easing international negotiations.