Climate change; Crop yield; GHG; Mitigation; SOC; SPACSYS; Animal Science and Zoology; Agronomy and Crop Science
Abstract :
[en] CONTEXT: Climate change is projected to threaten food security and stimulate greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, adaptation measures without sacrificing food production are required. OBJECTIVE: To assess possible consequences of rice–wheat system under climate change and to propose possible practices for mitigation. METHODS: The Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum SYStem (SPACSYS) model was tested using datasets from long-term experiment (1991–2019) assessing the impact of different fertilisation on crop production, crop nitrogen (N) content, soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in a Cambisol under rice–wheat system. The validated SPACSYS was then used to investigate the possible mitigation strategies from 2024 to 2100 under climate change scenarios (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5) and the baseline scenario and mitigation management scenarios, i.e., (i) reduced N application rate by 20 % (RNA), (ii) the introduction of mid-season drainage (MSD) and (iii) integrated management combining RNA with MSD (IM). RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Results showed that SPACSYS performed effectively in simulating yield and N content in grain and straw, SOC stock and CH4 and N2O emissions. Scenarios analysis elucidated that RNA would not decrease grain yields for either rice or wheat under the two climate change scenarios. Compared to the baseline scenario, low level of climate change scenario considering the CO2 fertilisation effects (SSP1–2.6_CO2) may benefit wheat yield (28 %) and had no effects on rice yield. In contrast, under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, whether CO2 fertilisation effects are considered or not, both rice and wheat yield could face great loss (i.e., 11.8–29.9 % for rice, 8.3–19.4 % for wheat). The winter wheat would not be suitable for planting in the distant future (2070–2100) due to the incomplete vernalisation caused by warming. The switching from winter wheat to spring wheat from 2070 onward could avoid the yield loss by 8.3–19.4 %. Climate change could decrease SOC sequestration rate. Under future climate change scenarios, IM could significantly decrease CH4 emissions by 56 % and N2O emissions by 24 %, as such reducing the net global warming potential by 69 % compared to no adaptation. Our simulations suggest that under climate change, crop switching in rice–wheat system combining integrated mitigation practices is possible to mitigate global warming and maintain crop production. SIGNIFICANCE: Our results underscore the significance of integrated adaptation of agricultural systems to climate change.
Disciplines :
Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Wang, Shuhui ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre ; State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arable Land in China, Key Laboratory of Arable Land Quality Monitoring and Evaluation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
Sun, Nan; State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arable Land in China, Key Laboratory of Arable Land Quality Monitoring and Evaluation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
Mu, Zhijian; College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
Wang, Fa; College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
Shi, Xiaojun; College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
Liu, Chuang; Key Laboratory of Nutrient Cycling Resources and Environment of Anhui, Institute of Soil and Fertilizer, Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hefei, China
Zhang, Shuxiang; State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arable Land in China, Key Laboratory of Arable Land Quality Monitoring and Evaluation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
Longdoz, Bernard ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Biosystems Dynamics and Exchanges (BIODYNE)
Meersmans, Jeroen ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Echanges Eau - Sol - Plantes
Colinet, Gilles ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Echanges Eau - Sol - Plantes
Xu, Minggang; State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arable Land in China, Key Laboratory of Arable Land Quality Monitoring and Evaluation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China ; Institute of Eco-Environment and Industrial Technology, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taiyuan, China
Wu, Lianhai; Net zero and resilient farming, Rothamsted Research, Okehampton, United Kingdom ; School of Agriculture, Food and the Environment, Royal Agricultural University, Gloucestershire, United Kingdom
NSCF - National Natural Science Foundation of China CSC - China Scholarship Council CAAS - Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Funding text :
This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China ( 2021YFD1901205 ), the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( 42177341 ). S. Wang was supported by the China Scholarship Council (No. 202103250053 ). We acknowledge the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences\u2014Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech joint PhD program and all the colleagues from the long-term fertilisation experimental site for their unremitting assistance.
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