Migrants’ Welfare Rights across EU27: The Logic of Selectivity in Bilateral Social Security Agreements

In a context of increased ethnic diversity, the access of third-country nationals to welfare rights across the EU has become a major area of concern. Existing evidence shows growing unemployment levels amongst this group of mobile individuals, with almost half of them being at risk of poverty or social exclusion (Eurostat 2019). Moreover, their access to European welfare systems has become highly salient in public debates (European Social Survey 2016) and political discourses (Schmidt, Blauberger & Martinsen 2018; Ruhs & Palme 2018). Against this background, this paper seeks to understand how and why EU Member States ensure the social protection of non-EU foreign residents by concluding Bilateral Social Security Agreements (BSSAs) with their origin countries. Drawing on an original dataset of all BSSAs that each EU Member State signed with the top five origin countries of third-country nationals residing in its territory, we show that the gradual bilateral collaboration in this field led to an increased proportion of non-EU migrants having access to welfare rights across EU27. Yet, our analysis also reveals that EU countries often followed a rather strategic rationale when selecting with which origin countries to conclude such agreements and for which policy areas. The anticipation of potential costs of BSSAs for European welfare systems explains Member States’ preference for concluding bilateral social security conventions only with specific third countries, while also shedding light on the array of welfare rights covered by these agreements.