1.5°C and 2°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions; Adaptation; Consecutive temperature and precipitation days; Impacts; Mongolian Plateau; Global and Planetary Change; Geography, Planning and Development; Development; Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Abstract :
[en] Purpose: The paper aims to investigate the possible changes in mean temperature in the Mongolian Plateau associated with the 1.5 and 2°C global warming targets and how snow changes in the Mongolian Plateau when the mean global warming is well below 2°C or limited to 1.5°C. Design/methodology/approach: In total, 30 model simulations of consecutive temperature and precipitation days from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are assessed in comparison with the 111 meteorological monitoring stations from 1961–2005. Multi-model ensemble and model relative error were used to evaluate the performance of CMIP5 models. Slope and the Mann–Kendall test were used to analyze the magnitude of the trends and evaluate the significance of trends of snow depth (SD) from 1981 to 2014 in the Mongolian Plateau. Findings: Some models perform well, even better than the majority (80%) of the models over the Mongolian Plateau, particularly HadGEM2-CC, CMCC-CM, BNU-ESM and GFDL-ESM2M, which simulate best in consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. Emphasis zones of WSDI on SD were deeply analysed in the 1.5 and 2 °C global warming period above pre-industrial conditions, because it alone has a significant negative relation with SD among the four indices. It is warmer than before in the Mongolian Plateau, particularly in the southern part of the Mongolian Plateau, indicating less SD. Originality/value: Providing climate extremes and SD data sets with different spatial-temporal scales over the Mongolian Plateau. Zoning SD potential risk areas and proposing adaptations to promote regional sustainable development.
Disciplines :
Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Li, Chunlan; School of Urban and Regional Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China ; State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy Sciences, Beijing, China
Xu, Xinwu; China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China ; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Du, Hongyu; Institute of Ecology and Sustainable Development, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai, China
Du, Debin; School of Urban and Regional Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
Leal Filho, Walter; Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Research and Transfer Centre “Sustainable Development and Climate Change Management”, Hamburg, Germany ; School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, United Kingdom
Wang, Jun; Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Sciences of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China ; School of Geographical Sciences East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
Bao, Gang; College of Geographical Sciences, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Huhhot, China ; Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Inner Mongolia, Huhhot, China
Ji, Xiaowen; School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
Yin, Shan; College of Geographical Sciences, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Huhhot, China ; Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Inner Mongolia, Huhhot, China
Bao, Yuhai; College of Geographical Sciences, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Huhhot, China ; Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Inner Mongolia, Huhhot, China
Azadi, Hossein ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Modélisation et développement ; Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Language :
English
Title :
Potential impacts of climate extremes on snow under global warming conditions in the Mongolian Plateau
Publication date :
29 November 2022
Journal title :
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management
This work was supported by a project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42001222), State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy Sciences (Grant No. SKLCS 2020–02), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2019M661423), the Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 18ZDA105).
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