Adaptive capacity; climate change; data mining; degraded rangelands; pastoral livelihood; Geography, Planning and Development; Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Abstract :
[en] Pastoralists’ livelihood on natural rangelands is increasingly influenced by the destructive impacts of climate change. While the phenomenon of climate change continues globally, it is expected to put more pressure on unfavourable rangelands and pastoral households whose livelihood source is only based on pastoralism activities. Thus, it is vital to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of pastoralists to climate change impacts through appropriate adaptation strategies. Accordingly, the aim of the current study was to assess the compatibility of adaptation strategies with the vulnerabilities posed by climate change to pastoralists’ livelihoods. The evaluation was based on a spatial survey that was conducted with a random sample of 393 Iranian pastoralists distributed in the counties of Eghlid, Sepidan, and Shiraz in the northern Fars province. The results showed that pastoralists were commonly vulnerable in terms of high-risk exposure and low adaptive capacity. About 27 livelihood vulnerability patterns were detected using data mining based on the relationships among the sub-components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation in three counties. The scores of the livelihood vulnerability were high in most of the livelihood vulnerability patterns. Only four patterns obtained relatively low vulnerability scores through accurate decisions on adopting the appropriate set of adaptation strategies. According to the low compatibility of pastoralists’ livelihood with climate change, the results of this study can assist policymakers to introduce appropriate adaptation strategies for pastoralists. In this regard, appropriate adaptation strategies in each vulnerability pattern are able to reduce livelihood vulnerability to climate change.
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