Multidisciplinary; Tree Rings; Climate change; European climate; jet stream
Abstract :
[en] The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes1-3. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic-European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300-2004 CE (R2 = 38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 CE as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.
Disciplines :
Agriculture & agronomy Environmental sciences & ecology Life sciences: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Author, co-author :
Xu, Guobao ; Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, China ; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA ; State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
Broadman, Ellie ; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Dorado-Liñán, Isabel; Departamento de Sistemas y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Klippel, Lara; Geschäftsbereich Klima und Umwelt, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
Meko, Matthew; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Büntgen, Ulf; Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK ; Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences (CzechGlobe), Brno, Czech Republic ; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland ; Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
De Mil, Tom ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Gestion des ressources forestières ; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Esper, Jan; Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences (CzechGlobe), Brno, Czech Republic ; Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
Gunnarson, Björn; Stockholm Tree Ring Laboratory, Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Hartl, Claudia; Nature Rings - Environmental Research and Education, Mainz, Germany ; Panel on Planetary Thinking, Justus-Liebig-University, Gießen, Germany
Krusic, Paul J; Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK ; Department of History, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Linderholm, Hans W ; Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Ljungqvist, Fredrik C ; Department of History, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden ; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden ; Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Linneanum, Uppsala, Sweden
Ludlow, Francis ; Trinity Centre for Environmental Humanities and Department of History, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Panayotov, Momchil; Dendrology Department, University of Forestry, Sofia, Bulgaria
Seim, Andrea ; Chair of Forest Growth and Dendroecology, Institute of Forest Sciences, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany ; Department of Botany, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Wilson, Rob; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews, Fife, UK
Zamora-Reyes, Diana ; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Trouet, Valerie ; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA. trouet@arizona.edu ; Belgian Climate Centre, Uccle, Belgium. trouet@arizona.edu
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