Predicting transpiration from forest stands in Belgium for the 21st century

Canopy transpiration is a major element of the hydrological cycle of temperate forests. Levels of water stress during the 21st century will be largely controlled by the response of canopy transpiration to changing environmental conditions. One year of transpiration measurement in two stands (Quercus robur L. and Fagus sylvatica L.) was used to calibrate the ASPECTS model on a(1) and D-0, two parameters of a modified version of Leuning's equation of stomatal conductance. A second year of data was used to validate the model. The results indicate a higher sensitivity of g(sc), to vapour pressure deficit (DS) in oak than in beech (D-0 (oak) < D-0 (beech)). To simulate future forest transpiration, site specific weather data sets were constructed from GCM outputs, spatially and temporally downscaled with local climatic data. Temperature increase between the end of the 20th and 21st centuries was predicted to be 2.8 degreesC in the beech stand and 3.1 degreesC in the oak stand. Based solely on temperature change, ASPECTS predicted an increase in transpiration of 17% in the beech and 6% in the oak stand, the difference being due to variation in local climate and the sensitivity of both species to D-s. Based solely on increased atmospheric CO2 (355 ppm in 1990 to 700 ppm in 2100), ASPECTS predicted that transpiration would decrease by 22% in beech and 19% in oak. With the combined scenarios of climatic change and increased atmospheric CO2, ASPECTS showed a decrease of 7% in transpired water in the oak stand and only 4% in the beech stand, which are not significant differences from zero. Consequently, water stress should not increase in either stand during the 21st century. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.