Modeling the impact of energy sufficiency on European integrated energy systems

According to the last IPCC WG3 AR6 report, the world is currently not on track to meet neither the 1.5°C nor the 2°C climate target. It is of the utmost urgency to start decreasing global CO2 emissions in the near future in order to remain within the carbon budgets associated to these objectives. To that aim, and to understand the levers of action available, global emissions can be decomposed into four factors: the world population, the global consumption per capita, the energy intensity and the carbon intensity. Leaving demographics aside, it is important to act on (1) the transition to clear energy sources to reduce the carbon intensity; (2) energy efficiency measures to reduce the energy intensity- and (3) the increase in energy sufficiency to reduce the overall consumption per capita. While the two first aspects are the object of abundant literature, much work remains to be done on the definition of credible scenarios considering energy sufficiency.

In this work, the PyPSA-EUR model is used to simulate the energy systems of 28 European countries, integrating energy sufficiency measures based on the CLEVER EU scenario. In such a system, electricity consumption is reduced because of the overall decrease in the consumption of goods and services, but also increased because of the electrification of relevant sectors such as transportation and heating & cooling. The system is simulated up to 2050 with the constraint to remain within the 1.5°C carbon budget.

Results indicate that, despite a lower overall energy consumption and lower associated CO2 emissions, interconnections and flexibility resources remain primordial. The electric grid, for example, requires further deployment and hydrogen remains a significant energy vector for advanced levels of decarbonisation. The sufficiency scenario however allows to drastically reduce the required investment costs into these technologies compared to a business-as-usual scenario. It also allows ensuring self-sufficiency at the EU level without the need for technologies such as CCS or nuclear power.