Systematic Analysis of Energy Transition Pathways for Emission Reduction in the Flat Glass Industry Using MILP Formulation

A systemic methodology was developed, employing key performance indicators (KPIs): specific total annual cost (TAC) (€/tglass), specific emissions (tCO2/tglass) and specific energy consumption (MWh/tglass) to analyse various energy transition routes for flat glass production, such as NG oxy-combustion, H2 and hybrid furnaces, and full electrification, along with glass recycle and carbon capture (CC). A Blueprint (BP) model, including steady-state values for mass and energy balance, as well as investment and operating costs, is developed. To determine the optimal route, the OSMOSE Lua optimization framework was employed, which solves the mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem using the TAC as the objective function. Additionally, three scenarios, namely Central, Electrification and Clean Molecules were implemented, influencing costs of natural gas (NG), H2, electricity, and CO2 emission, for years 2030, 2040 and 2050. For 2030, the hybrid furnace becomes the most cost-effective route across all scenarios. However, considering a balance between emissions and cost, pathways such as the H2 furnace, all-electric furnace, or NG furnace with CC suit moderate emissions target. For higher targets, hybrid with CC is the optimal choice, effectively combining cost efficiency with significant emissions reduction. In 2040, electrification with CC dominates in electrification scenario, achieving significant emissions and TAC reductions, while the hybrid with CC prevails in other scenarios, with 93% emission and 15-16% TAC reductions. By 2050, lower commodity costs and higher CO2 favour CC-equipped routes of all-electric, H2, and hybrid, reducing TAC by 34-39% and emissions by 93-95%. In conclusion, for the energy transition in glass sector, an excellent trade-off between all KPIs is required, based on future energy perspectives, to make the right investment decisions.