Global warming potential; N fertilizer; N2O emissions; SOC sequestration; SPACSYS; Straw retention; Crop yield; Fertilizer applications; Greenhouse gas emissions; N fertilizers; N2O emission; Soil organic carbon sequestration; Soil organic carbon storages; Agronomy and Crop Science; Soil Science; Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract :
[en] Straw retention has been widely implemented to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation for global agriculture. However, the combined effects of long-term straw retention on crop production, SOC sequestration and GHG emissions response to climate change remain unknown. Two nearby wheat–maize rotation field experiments in the North China Plain, combined with local weather, soil and agronomic measurements, were used to evaluate the applicability of the SPACSYS model. The model was then applied to assess the response of crop yield, SOC storage and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions to three nitrogen fertilizer application levels (100, 200, 400 kg N ha−1) and three representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) under straw retention for the wheat–maize rotation systems during 2021–2100. In general, the model was reasonably accurate with R2 and model efficiency (EF) ranging from 0.25 to 0.96 and 0.32–0.94, respectively. Climate change decreased wheat yield by 4–39%, while maize showed a slight increase (3%) under RCP2.6 and a decrease of 1–15% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The SOC storage in the 0–20 cm soil increased at a rate of 73–195 kg C ha−1 yr−1 but decreased within the upper 1 m soil at 280–390 kg C ha−1 yr−1. Climate change reduced the positive effect of SOC sequestration except in RCP2.6 and stimulated substantial N2O emissions ranging from 1–7.5 to 2.9–23.2 kg N ha−1 yr−1, consequently, the global warming potential increased from –79–2555 to 548–9357 kg CO2-eq ha−1 yr−1 under various N fertilizer application levels. This study reveals that the negative feedback under climate change with modelling approach, and extensive efforts are needed to make adaptations to ensure food production and reduce GHG emissions in the future.
Disciplines :
Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Wang, Shuhui ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre ; State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Key Laboratory of Arable Land Quality Monitoring and Evaluation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
Sun, Nan; State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Key Laboratory of Arable Land Quality Monitoring and Evaluation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
Zhang, Xubo; Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Hu, Chunsheng; Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China
Wang, Yuying; Institute of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Southwest Minzu University, Chengdu, China
Xiong, Wei; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Sustainable AgriFood Program, Texcoco, Mexico
Zhang, Shuxiang; State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Key Laboratory of Arable Land Quality Monitoring and Evaluation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
Colinet, Gilles ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Echanges Eau - Sol - Plantes
Xu, Minggang; State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Key Laboratory of Arable Land Quality Monitoring and Evaluation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China ; Institute of Eco-Environment and Industrial Technology, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taiyuan, China
Wu, Lianhai; Net zero and resilient farming, Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon, United Kingdom
Language :
English
Title :
Assessing the impacts of climate change on crop yields, soil organic carbon sequestration and N2O emissions in wheat–maize rotation systems
NSCF - National Natural Science Foundation of China [CN]
Funding text :
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42177341), the UK–China Joint Centre for Sustainable Intensification in Agriculture (CSIA) and National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFD190100202). SW was supported by the China Scholarship Council (No. 202103250053). We acknowledge the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences—Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech joint PhD program and all the colleagues from the long-term experimental site for their unremitting assistance.
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