[en] We use an observationally calibrated ice-sheet model to investigate the future trajectory of the Antarctic ice sheet related to uncertainties in the future balance between sub-shelf melting and ice discharge, on the one hand, and the surface mass balance, on the other. Our ensemble of simulations, forced by a panel of climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), suggests that the ocean will be the primary driver of short-term Antarctic mass loss, initiating ice loss in West Antarctica already during this century. The atmosphere initially plays a mitigating role through increased snowfall, leading to an Antarctic contribution to global mean sea-level rise by 2100 of 6 (-8 to 15)cm under a low-emission scenario and 5.5 (-10 to 16)cm under a very high-emission scenario. However, under the very high-emission pathway, the influence of the atmosphere shifts beyond the end of the century, becoming an amplifying driver of mass loss as the ice sheet's surface mass balance decreases. We show that this transition occurs when Antarctic near-surface warming exceeds a critical threshold of +7.5°C, at which the increase in surface runoff outweighs the increase in snow accumulation, a signal that is amplified by the melt-elevation feedback. Therefore, under the very high-emission scenario, oceanic and atmospheric drivers are projected to result in a complete collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet along with significant grounding-line retreat in the marine basins of the East Antarctic ice sheet, leading to a median global mean sea-level rise of 2.75 (6.95)m by 2300 (3000). Under a more sustainable socio-economic pathway, we find that the Antarctic ice sheet may still contribute to a median global mean sea-level rise of 0.62 (1.85)m by 2300 (3000). However, the rate of sea-level rise is significantly reduced as mass loss is likely to remain confined to the Amundsen Sea Embayment, where present-day climate conditions seem sufficient to commit to a continuous retreat of Thwaites Glacier.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Coulon, Violaine; Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Brussels, Belgium
Klose, Ann Kristin; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany ; Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Kittel, Christoph ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie ; Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Edwards, Tamsin ; Department of Geography, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
Turner, Fiona ; Department of Geography, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
Winkelmann, Ricarda ; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany ; Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Pattyn, Frank; Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Brussels, Belgium
Language :
English
Title :
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
Publication date :
12 February 2024
Journal title :
The Cryosphere
ISSN :
1994-0416
eISSN :
1994-0424
Publisher :
Copernicus Publications
Volume :
18
Issue :
2
Pages :
653 - 681
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Tags :
CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif
F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE]
Funding text :
This publication was supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 869304, PROTECT contribution number 82. Computational resources have been provided by the Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif (CÉCI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under grant no. 2.5020.11, and by the Walloon Region. Special thanks to Ariel Lozano for his relentless help and unfailing availability. Ann Kristin Klose and Ricarda Winkelmann acknowledge support by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 820575 (TiPACCs) and no. 869304 (PROTECT).This research has been supported by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, H2020 Societal Challenges (grant nos. 869304 and 820575).
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