Simulation of long term (1981-2100) evolution of heat waves in Brussels based on MAR Regional Model

With climate change, Belgium is experiencing and will experience more frequent and severe heat waves, which are particularly difficult to withstand in cities due to the urban heat island effect. In this study, we investigate the evolution of heatwaves in Brussels since 1981 and in the future, up to 2100, using climate simulations from global models refined by MAR. Firstly, a general analysis of the reliability of different global climate models, and in particular their ability to simulate heatwaves in Brussels, is conducted. Then, we select the best model and analyze its projections in terms of future heat waves in Brussels, in the case of the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario. It appears that the selected model projects heatwaves that are significantly more frequent, longer, and more intense in the future than currently, in the case of the SSP5-8.5 scenario.