[en] Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.
Disciplines :
Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Zabel, Florian ; Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany
Müller, Christoph ; Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Elliott, Joshua; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Minoli, Sara ; Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany ; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA ; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Schneider, Julia M ; Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany
Franke, James A ; Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA ; Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
Moyer, Elisabeth; Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA ; Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
Dury, Marie ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophysique, géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques
François, Louis ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophysique, géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques
Folberth, Christian ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Liu, Wenfeng ; Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
Pugh, Thomas A M ; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK ; Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
Olin, Stefan ; Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Rabin, Sam S ; Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Mauser, Wolfram ; Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany
Hank, Tobias ; Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany
Ruane, Alex C ; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Asseng, Senthold ; School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich (TUM), München, Germany
BMBF - Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung [DE] Open Philanthropy Project [US-CA] [US-CA]
Funding text :
F. Z. and J.M.S. acknowledge financial support from the BioSDG (grant no. 031B0788B) and the BioNex Project (grant no. 031B0230B) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. J.J was supported by the Open Philanthropy Project. S.S.R. acknowledges funding from the ISIpedia project (grant no. 01LS1711B) funded by the European Research Area for Climate Services. RDCEP is funded by NSF (grant no. SES‐1463644) through the Decision Making Under Uncertainty program. James A. Franke was supported by the NSF NRT program (grant no. DGE‐1735359) and the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program (grant no. DGE‐1746045). Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.
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