plural valuation; policy scenarios; Sustainable Development Goals; transformation; Computer Science (miscellaneous); Geography, Planning and Development; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment; Environmental Science (miscellaneous); Energy Engineering and Power Technology; Hardware and Architecture; Computer Networks and Communications; Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law; Building and Construction
Abstract :
[en] Comparing the impacts of future scenarios is essential for developing and guiding the political sustainability agenda. This review-based analysis compares six IPBES scenarios for their impacts on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 20 biodiversity targets (Aichi targets) for the Europe and Central Asia regions. The comparison is based on a review of 143 modeled scenarios synthesized in a plural cost–benefit approach which provides the distances to multiple policy goals. We confirm and substantiate the claim that transformative change is vital but also point out which directions for political transformation are to be preferred. The hopeful message is that large societal losses might still be avoided, and multiple benefits can be generated over the coming decades and centuries. Yet, policies will need to strongly steer away from scenarios based on regional competition, inequality, and economic optimism.
Disciplines :
Life sciences: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Author, co-author :
Jacobs, Sander ; Research Team Nature and Society, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Brussels, Belgium ; Belgian Biodiversity Platform BBPF, WTC III, Brussels, Belgium
Santos-Martín, Fernando; Departamento Tecnología Química y Ambiental, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid, Spain
Primmer, Eeva; Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Helsinki, Finland
Boeraeve, Fanny ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Biodiversité et Paysage
Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra ; Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Barcelona, Spain
Proença, Vânia ; Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Schlaepfer, Martin; enviroSPACE Laboratory, Université de Genève, Geneva, Switzerland
Brotons, Lluis ; Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Barcelona, Spain
Dunford, Robert; UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom
Lavorel, Sandra ; Alpine Ecology Laboratory, French National Centre for Scientific Research CNRS, Grenoble, France
Guisan, Antoine; Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Claudet, Joachim ; French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), Paris, France
Harmáčková, Zuzana V. ; Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
Kok, Kasper ; Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research WUR, Wageningen, Netherlands
Zinngrebe, Yves; Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
Pedde, Simona; Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research WUR, Wageningen, Netherlands
Czúcz, Bálint; MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Vácrátót, Hungary
Solidoro, Cosimo; Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Sgonico, Italy
Cantele, Matthew; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Rixen, Christian; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Heck, Anna; Research Team Nature and Society, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Brussels, Belgium ; Belgian Biodiversity Platform BBPF, WTC III, Brussels, Belgium
Desair, Jomme ; Research Team Nature and Society, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Brussels, Belgium
P.A.H. and R.D. were funded by the Natural Environment Research Council award number NE/R016429/1 as part of the UK-SCAPE programme delivering National Capability (SPEED project).
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