The Energy Sufficiency Concept and Its Impact on Energy Demand Estimation in Rural Communities from Developing Countries

Achieving universal electrification is a complex task because the populations that still do not have access to electricity are usually located in remote areas. The sizing of adequate energy systems requires a detailed study of the energy demand in the communities to be electrified. In this sense, the aim of this work is to explore the evolution of the electricity demand if rural communities follow a development path towards a state of ’energy sufficiency’. With this aim, a series of plausible scenarios are modelled using a bottom-up stochastic model to obtain the electricity demand. Main findings show the importance of considering three main sector of consumers (residential, community services and income generating activities) at the moment of analyzing the demand. The demand increases significantly between scenarios and the contribution of each considered sector is different. There are also substantial differences between the lowlands and highlands of Bolivia in terms of the energy demand of rural communities.