Besnoitia besnoiti; bovine besnoitiosis; cattle; clustering analysis; drivers; expert elicitation; multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA); sensitivity analysis; Immunology and Allergy; Molecular Biology; Immunology and Microbiology (all); Microbiology (medical); Infectious Diseases; General Immunology and Microbiology
Abstract :
[en] Bovine besnoitiosis (BB) is a chronic and debilitating parasitic disease in cattle caused by the protozoan parasite Besnoitia besnoiti. South European countries are affected and have reported clinical cases of BB. However, BB is considered as emerging in other countries/regions of central, eastern and northern Europe. Yet, data on drivers of emergence of BB in Europe are scarce. In this study, fifty possible drivers of emergence of BB in cattle were identified. A scoring system was developed per driver. Then, the scoring was elicited from eleven recognized European experts to: (i) allocate a score to each driver, (ii) weight the score of drivers within each domain and (iii) weight the different domains among themselves. An overall weighted score was calculated per driver, and drivers were ranked in decreasing order of importance. Regression tree analysis was used to group drivers with comparable likelihoods to play a role in the emergence of BB in cattle in Europe. Finally, robustness testing of expert elicitation was performed for the seven drivers having the highest probability to play a key role in the emergence of BB: i.e., (i) legal/illegal movements of live animals from neighbouring/European Union member states or (ii) from third countries, (iii) risk of showing no clinical sign and silent spread during infection and post infection, (iv) as a consequence, difficulty to detect the emergence, (v) existence of vectors and their potential spread, (vi) European geographical proximity of the pathogen/disease to the country, and (vii) animal density of farms. Provided the limited scientific knowledge on the topic, expert elicitation of knowledge, multi-criteria decision analysis, cluster and sensitivity analyses are very important to prioritize future studies, e.g., the need for quantitative import risk assessment and estimation of the burden of BB to evidence and influence policymaking towards changing (or not) its status as a reportable disease, with prevention and control activities targeting, firstly, the top seven drivers. The present methodology could be applied to other emerging animal diseases.
Disciplines :
Veterinary medicine & animal health
Author, co-author :
Saegerman, Claude ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des maladies infectieuses et parasitaires (DMI) > Epidémiologie et analyse des risques appliqués aux sciences vétérinaires
Evrard, Julien; Regional Association for Animal Registration and Health (ARSIA) asbl, 5590 Ciney, Belgium
Houtain, Jean-Yves; Regional Association for Animal Registration and Health (ARSIA) asbl, 5590 Ciney, Belgium
Alzieu, Jean-Pierre; Laboratoire Vétérinaire Départemental de l'Ariège (LVD09), 09008 Foix, Ariège, France
Bianchini, Juana ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals and Health (FARAH)
Mpouam, Serge Eugène; School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Ngaoundere, Ngaoundere P.O. Box 454, Cameroon
Schares, Gereon ; Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Bundesforschungsinstitut für Tiergesundheit, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, 17493 Greifswald, Insel Riems, Germany
Liénard, Emmanuel ; UMR INTHERES/DGER, Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse, CEDEX 03, 31076 Toulouse, France
Jacquiet, Philippe; UMR INRA/DGER IHAP 1225, Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse, CEDEX 03, 31076 Toulouse, France
Villa, Luca ; Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via dell'Università 6, 26900 Lodi, Italy
Álvarez-García, Gema ; SALUVET Group, Animal Health Department, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Gazzonis, Alessia Libera ; Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via dell'Università 6, 26900 Lodi, Italy
Gentile, Arcangelo ; Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna, 40064 Ozzano Emilia, BO, Italy
Delooz, Laurent ; Research Unit of Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Applied to Veterinary Science (UREAR-ULiège), Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health (FARAH) Center, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liege, 4000 Liege, Belgium ; Regional Association for Animal Registration and Health (ARSIA) asbl, 5590 Ciney, Belgium
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