Global climate models; IPCC; Ouémé river basin; Rainfall; Rainfall indices; Statistical criteria; Oceanography; Water Science and Technology; Waste Management and Disposal; Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract :
[en] This study assessed the performance of eight general circulation models (GCMs) implemented in the upper Oueme River basin in Benin Republic (West Africa) during the Fifth Assessment Report on Climate Change. Historical rainfall simulations of the climate model of Rossby Regional Centre (RCA4) driven by eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GCMs over a 55-year period (1951 to 2005) are evaluated using the observational data set. Apart from daily rainfall, other rainfall parameters calculated from observed and simulated rainfall were compared. U-test and other statistical criteria (R2, MBE, MAE, RMSE and standard of standard deviations) were used. According to the results, the simulations correctly reproduce the interannual variability of precipitation in the upper Oueme River basin. However, the models tend to produce drizzle. Especially, the overestimation of April, May and November rains not only explains the overestimation of seasonal and annual cumulative rainfall but also the early onset of the rainy season and its late withdrawal. However, we noted that this overestimation magnitude varies from one model to another. As for extreme rainfall indices, the models reproduced them poorly. The CanESM2, CNRM-CM5 and EC-EARTH models perform well for daily rainfall. A trade-off is formulated to select the common MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, NorESM1-M and CanESM2 models for different rainfall parameters for the reliable projection of rainfall in the area. However, the MPI-ESM-LR model is a valuable tool for studying future climate change.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Attogouinon, André ; International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (ICMPA-UNESCO CHAIR), University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin
Lawin, Agnidé E. ; Laboratory of Applied Hydrology, National Institute ofWater, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin
Deliège, Jean-François ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Aquapôle
Language :
English
Title :
Evaluation of general circulation models over the upper oueme river basin in the republic of Benin
Alternative titles :
[fr] Évaluation de modèles de circulation générale pour le bassin versant de l'Oueme en Républic du Bénin
Publication date :
March 2020
Journal title :
Hydrology
eISSN :
2306-5338
Publisher :
MDPI Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
This research received no external funding. This research described in this article was simultaneously developed at the Laboratory of Applied Hydrology and the International Chair in Physics, Mathematics and Applications of the University of Abomey-Calavi and at Aquapole of University of Liege.
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