The Influence of Passenger Car Banning Policies on Modal Shifts: Rotterdam’s Case Study

Low-emission zones (LEZs), incentivizing electric cars, park-and-ride systems, and other traffic reduction schemes, are all single measures aimed at achieving low-/zero-emission mobility. This paper aims to investigate the impact of LEZs’ passenger car banning and argues that such single measures cannot achieve significant traffic or emission reduction levels without being integrated into a well-designed policy package that ensures the sufficient provision of mobility alternatives. Featuring Rotterdam as a single case study, this paper follows a mixed methodology consisting of (1) quantitative real-time data on transport usage that mirror the users’ behavior and (2) qualitative data acquired from in-depth interviews and documents that explain the government’s intention and the users’ behavior. The results show that between 2016 and 2020, after applying the LEZ policy for restricting passenger cars and vans of Euro 3 and lower, there was a 50% decrease in the number of polluting passenger cars and vans entering Rotterdam. However, this decrease is insignificant, since the number of vehicles targeted by the policy was less than 2% of the overall vehicles that entered the LEZ area. The results also shed light on the role of systematic policy packaging in ensuring a change in user behavior. Among other initiatives, a successful LEZ implantation should be supported by inner-city parking reduction, electric vehicle charging facilities, incentive schemes, and alternative sustainable mobility options. Above all, the number of restricted vehicles must be significant. The conclusion and discussion develop a well-structured, educational, evaluative framework and recommend a comprehensive package of policy measures for cities seeking low-emission mobility. The research, however, did not consider the impact of different land-use distributions on the application of the LEZ, which can be an interesting angle for future researchers.