Abstract :
[en] Abstract. Surface-mass-balance (SMB) and firn-densification (FD)
models are widely used in altimetry studies as a tool to separate
atmospheric-driven from ice-dynamics-driven ice-sheet mass changes and to
partition observed volume changes into ice-mass changes and firn-air-content
changes. Until now, SMB models have been principally validated based on
comparison with ice core and weather station data or comparison with widely
separated flight radar-survey flight lines. Firn-densification models have
been primarily validated based on their ability to match net densification
over decades, as recorded in firn cores, and the short-term time-dependent
component of densification has rarely been evaluated at all. The advent of
systematic ice-sheet-wide repeated ice-surface-height measurements from
ICESat-2 (the Ice Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite, 2) allows us to
measure the net surface-height change of the Greenland ice sheet at
quarterly resolution and compare the measured surface-height differences
directly with those predicted by three FD–SMB models: MARv3.5.11 (Modèle
Atmosphérique Régional version 3.5.11) and GSFCv1.1 and GSFCv1.2 (the
Goddard Space Flight Center FD–SMB models version 1.1 and 1.2). By
segregating the data by season and elevation, and based on the timing and
magnitude of modelled processes in areas where we expect minimal
ice-dynamics-driven height changes, we investigate the models' accuracy in
predicting atmospherically driven height changes. We find that while all
three models do well in predicting the large seasonal changes in the
low-elevation parts of the ice sheet where melt rates are highest, two of
the models (MARv3.5.11 and GSFCv1.1) systematically overpredict, by around a
factor of 2, the magnitude of height changes in the high-elevation parts
of the ice sheet, particularly those associated with melt events. This
overprediction seems to be associated with the melt sensitivity of the
models in the high-elevation part of the ice sheet. The third model,
GSFCv1.2, which has an updated high-elevation melt parameterization, avoids
this overprediction.
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