Agent-based modeling; Bottom-up energy model; Energy modeling; Optimization modeling; Sustainable development; Computer Science (miscellaneous); Geography, Planning and Development; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment; Building and Construction; Environmental Science (miscellaneous); Energy Engineering and Power Technology; Hardware and Architecture; Computer Networks and Communications; Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Abstract :
[en] A rational assessment of electricity generation technologies constitutes a cornerstone to attain a sustainable and secure electricity plan. The Egyptian government is struggling with the accelerated growth of the national electricity demand through setting up and examining different future electricity scenarios and through the implementation of energy models to secure the provi-sion of affordable and clean energy as part of the United Nations 2030 agenda of achieving the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, conventional techno-economic models still rep-resent for many countries an attractive tool for energy planning. We investigate in this article the added values of applying a dynamic multi-criteria spatial-agent model that covers several sustain-ability dimensions versus an optimization techno-economic model for future energy planning in Egypt. Moreover, we report on the historical development of electricity supply since 2009 in Egypt. The study reveals predominant advantages of applying the agent-based modeling approach, which simulates the evolution of an energy transition landscape through the interactive and adaptive dynamic decision behavior of different societal groups (agents) in response to changes in the whole system. The study advocates the implementation of a dynamic agent-based bottom-up approach for the planning of a future sustainable electricity mix in Egypt.
Disciplines :
Environmental sciences & ecology
Author, co-author :
Shaaban, Mostafa; Research Group Land Use Decisions in the Spatial and System Context (DSC), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany ; Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Scheffran, Jürgen ; Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Elsobki, Mohamed Salah; Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
Azadi, Hossein ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Modélisation et développement ; Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Language :
English
Title :
A Comprehensive Evaluation of Electricity Planning Models in Egypt: Optimization versus Agent-Based Approaches
Funding: This research was funded in part by the German Science Foundation (DFG) through the Clusters of Excellence CliSAP (EXC 177) and CLICCS (EXC 2037), and the APC was funded by the first author.
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