Autobiographical knowledge conditions the effect of repeated simulation on belief in the future occurrence of imagined events

The aim of this study was to examine whether and how the feeling that an event will happen in the future—referred to as belief in future occurrence—increases with repeated event simulation. In two experiments, we examined the effect of repeated simulation on belief by having participants repeatedly imagine future events holding different levels of integration with autobiographical knowledge. Our results showed that repeated simulation enhances belief in future occurrence, but only for uncertain events, which are neither clearly supported nor contradicted by autobiographical knowledge; repetition did not influence belief for events already believed or considered implausible due to their incoherence with autobiographical knowledge. These findings show that the effect of repeated simulation on belief in future occurrence depends on the consistency of imagined events with autobiographical knowledge.