Personal goal characteristics predict the actual occurrence of future events

The feeling that an event will happen in the future-referred to as belief in future occurrence- can predict the actual event occurrence. A major determinant of belief in future occurrence is the link between personal goals and the imagined event, but how personal goal characteristics can shape belief and predict event occurrence remains unexplored. To investigate this question, we asked participants to assess personal goals, then imagine and rate belief in occurrence for events related to their goals and plausible to happen in the coming month. Actual occurrence of events was assessed after one month. Results showed that goal commitment and expectancy predicted belief in future occurrence. These goal characteristics also predicted the actual occurrence of events. Notably, we found that belief partially mediates the relationship between goal characteristics and actual occurrence. These results suggest that belief in future occurrence conveys rich information about personal goals, which may then be used to guide our actions and decisions accordingly.