Competitiveness of economic growth based on renewable energy: the case of Uganda to 2035

Emerging economies are experiencing significant growth, which implies a booming demand for energy, especially electricity. In order to meet the 2050 climate target, this growth will have to rely mainly on renewable energy. This contrasts with the fossil fuel-based growth experienced by developed countries. This paper analyses, for the case of Uganda, the difference between a fossil fuel-based energy development and leapfrogging to a renewable one. The analysis covers all energy sectors (electricity, heat and mobility) and shows that priority should be given to heat and mobility. Results show that the cheapest growth is based on fossil energies. Nevertheless, favouring renewable energy is not far from being competitive; not to mention the other positive impacts such as increasing energy sovereignty, increasing national employment and addressing climate change. The work estimates a penalty of 15-30e/ton of CO2 equivalent is sufficient to achieve the competitiveness of a highly sustainable society.