Earth-Surface Processes; Water Science and Technology
Abstract :
[en] Abstract. Regional climate models (RCMs) and reanalysis datasets provide valuable information for assessing the vulnerability of ice shelves to collapse over Antarctica, which is important for future global sea level rise estimates. Within this context, this paper examines variability in snowfall, near-surface air temperature and melt across products from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) and Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) RCMs, as well as the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Seasonal and trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) is applied to split the monthly time series at each model grid cell into trend, seasonal and residual components. Significant systematic differences between outputs are shown for all variables in the mean and in the seasonal and residual standard deviations, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results imply that differences in the atmospheric dynamics, parametrisation, tuning and surface schemes between models together contribute more significantly to large-scale variability than differences in the driving data, resolution, domain specification, ice sheet mask, digital elevation model and boundary conditions. Despite significant systematic differences, high temporal correlations are found for snowfall and near-surface air temperature across all products at fine spatial scales. For melt, only moderate correlation exists at fine spatial scales between different RCMs and low correlation between RCM and reanalysis outputs. Root mean square deviations (RMSDs) between all outputs in the monthly time series for each variable are shown to be significant at fine spatial scales relative to the magnitude of annual deviations. Correcting for systematic differences results in significant reductions in RMSDs, suggesting the importance of observations and further development of bias-correction techniques.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Carter, Jeremy
Leeson, Amber
Orr, Andrew
Kittel, Christoph ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
van Wessem, J. Melchior
Language :
English
Title :
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets
Publication date :
23 September 2022
Journal title :
The Cryosphere
ISSN :
1994-0416
eISSN :
1994-0424
Publisher :
Copernicus GmbH
Volume :
16
Issue :
9
Pages :
3815-3841
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Tags :
CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif Tier-1 supercomputer
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