[en] Cholera outbreaks have occurred in Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya almost every year since 1977-1978, when the disease emerged in these countries. We used a multiscale, geographic information system-based approach to assess the link between cholera outbreaks, climate, and environmental variables. We performed time-series analyses and field investigations in the main affected areas. Results showed that cholera greatly increased during El Niño warm events (abnormally warm El Niños) but decreased or remained stable between these events. Most epidemics occurred in a few hotspots in lakeside areas, where the weekly incidence of cholera varied by season, rainfall, fluctuations of plankton, and fishing activities. During lull periods, persistence of cholera was explained by outbreak dynamics, which suggested a metapopulation pattern, and by endemic foci around the lakes. These links between cholera outbreaks, climate, and lake environments need additional, multidisciplinary study.
Disciplines :
Environmental sciences & ecology
Author, co-author :
Nkoko, D.B.; Université de Franche-Comté, Besançon, France, Ministère de la Santé Publique, Kinshasa, Congo
Giraudoux, P.; Université de Franche-Comté, Besançon, France
Plisnier, Pierre-Denis ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophysique, géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Chemical Oceanography Unit (COU) ; Royal Museum for Central Africa, Tervuren, Belgium
Tinda, A.M.; Ministère de la Santé Publique, Kinshasa, Congo
Piarroux, M.; Université de Franche-Comté, Besançon, France
Sudre, B.; Université de Franche-Comté, Besançon, France
Horion, S.; Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Ispra, Italy
Tamfum, J.-J.M.; Ministère de la Santé Publique, Kinshasa, Congo, Université de Kinshasa, Kinshasha, Congo
Ilunga, B.K.; Ministère de la Santé Publique, Kinshasa, Congo
Piarroux, R.; Université de la Méditerranée, Marseille, France, University Hospital La Timone, Marseille, France
Language :
English
Title :
Dynamics of cholera outbreaks in great Lakes region of Africa, 1978-2008
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