Impact of climate change on meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts in the Lower Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Srepok Basin, Vietnam
climate change; drought; hydrology; Srepok River Basin; SWAT model; Climate change impact; Meteorological drought; Regional climate models; River basins; Soil and water assessment tool; Standardized precipitation index; Water resources management; Environmental Engineering; Water Science and Technology; Pollution; Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Abstract :
[en] The objective of this study is to assess future changes in meteorological, hydrology and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Srepok River Basin, a subbasin of LMB, using three drought indices; standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI). The well-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as a simulation tool to estimate the features of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts. The climate data for the 2016–2040 period is obtained from four different regional climate models; HadGEM3-RA, SNU-MM5, RegCM4 and YSU-RSM, which are downscaled from the HadGEM2-AO GCM. The results show that the severity, duration and frequency of droughts are predicted to increase in the near future for this region. Moreover, the meteorological drought is less sensitive to climate change than the hydrological and agricultural droughts; however, it has a stronger correlation with the hydrological and agricultural droughts as the accumulation period is increased. These findings may be useful for water resources management and future planning for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change impact in the Srepok River Basin.
Disciplines :
Environmental sciences & ecology
Author, co-author :
Sam, Truong Thao; Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam
Khoi, Dao Nguyen ; Faculty of Environment, University of Science, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Nguyen Thi Thanh Thao ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Sphères ; Institute of Environment Science, Engineering and Management, Industrial University of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Nhi, Pham Thi Thao; Institute for Computational Science and Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Quan, Nguyen Trong; Institute for Computational Science and Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Hoan, Nguyen Xuan; Ho Chi Minh City University of Food Industry, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Nguyen, Van Thinh; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, South Korea
Language :
English
Title :
Impact of climate change on meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts in the Lower Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Srepok Basin, Vietnam
National Foundation for Science and Technology Development
Funding text :
This research is funded by Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED) under grant number ‘105.06-2013.09’. The authors also would like to thank to anonymous reviewers for their very valuable and constructive comments to improve the manuscript.
Abbaspour, K.C. (2015) SWAT-CUP: SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs – A User Manual. Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology.
CCAFS-SEA (CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, A. and F.S.-S.A.). (2016) Assessment Report: The Drought Crisis in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. Hanoi, Vietnam.
Chen, J., Brissette, F.P., Chaumont, D. and Braun, M. (2013) Finding appropriate bias correction methods in downscaling precipitation for hydrologic impact studies over North America. Water Resources Research, 49, 4187–4205.
Chu, T.W. and Shirmohammadi, A. (2004) Evaluation of the SWAT model’s hydrology component in the piedmont physiographic region of Maryland. Transactions of the ASAE, 47, 1057–1073.
Duan, K. and Mei, Y. (2014) Comparison of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought responses to climate change and uncertainty assessment. Water Resources Management, 28, 5039–5054.
FAO. (2016) ‘El Nino’ Event in Vietnam: Agriculture Food Security and Livelihood Needs Assessment in Response to Drought and Salt Water Intrusion. Hanoi.
von Gunten, D., Wöhling, T., Haslauer, C.P., Merchán, D., Causapé, J. and Cirpka, O.A. (2016) Using an integrated hydrological model to estimate the usefulness of meteorological drought indices in a changing climate. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 4159–4175.
Hao, Z., Singh, V.P. and Xia, Y. (2018) Seasonal drought prediction: advances, challenges, and future prospects. Reviews of Geophysics, 56(1), 108–141. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000549
Huyen, N.T., Tu, L.H., Tram, V.N.Q., Minh, D.N., Liem, N.D. and Loi, N.K. (2017) Assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Srepok watershed, Central Highland of Vietnam. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 8(3), 524–534. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2017.135
IPCC. (2013) The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kamali, B., Houshmand Kouchi, D., Yang, H. and Abbaspour, K. (2017) Multilevel drought hazard assessment under climate change scenarios in semi-arid regions – a case study of the Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Water, 9, 241.
Khoi, D.N. and Suetsugi, T. (2012) Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 3, 207–224.
Khoi, D.N. and Thom, V.T. (2015) Parameter uncertainty analysis for simulating streamflow in a river catchment of Vietnam. Global Ecology and Conservation, 4, 538–548.
Kim, C.J., Park, M.J. and Lee, J.H. (2014) Analysis of climate change impacts on the spatial and frequency patterns of drought using a potential drought hazard mapping approach. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 61–80.
Le, T. and Sharif, H. (2015) Modelling the projected changes of river flow in Central Vietnam under different climate change scenarios. Water, 7, 3579–3598.
Leng, G., Tang, Q. and Rayburg, S. (2015) Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China. Global and Planetary Change, 126, 23–34.
McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J. and Kliest, J. (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. Boston. pp. 179–184.
MONRE. (2016) Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Vietnam. Hanoi.
Moriasi, D.N., Gitau, M.W., Pai, N. and Daggupati, P. (2015) Hydrologic and water quality models: performance measures and evaluation criteria. Transactions of the ASABE, 58, 1763–1785.
Neitsch, A.L., Arnold, J.G., Kiniry, J.R. and Williams, J.R. (2011) Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation Version 2009. Texas: Texas A&M University.
Park, C., Min, S.-K., Lee, D.-K.D., Cha, D.-H., Suh, M.-S., Kang, H.-S., et al. (2016) Evaluation of multiple regional climate models for summer climate extremes over East Asia. Climate Dynamics, 46, 2469–2486.
Phan, T.T.H., Sunada, K., Oishi, S. and Sakamoto, Y. (2010) River discharge in the Kone River basin (Central Vietnam) under climate change by applying the BTOPMC distributed hydrological model. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 1, 269–279.
Raghavan, S.V., Tue, V.M. and Shie-Yui, L. (2014) Impact of climate change on future stream flow in the Dakbla river basin. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 16, 231–244.
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Carrao, H., Barbosa, P. and Vogt, J. (2014) World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951–2010. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 2792–2804.
Tan, M.L., Ibrahim, A.L., Yusop, Z., Chua, V.P. and Chan, N.W. (2017) Climate change impacts under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. Atmospheric Research, 189, 1–10.
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J. (2013) Is bias correction of regional climate model (RCM) simulations possible for non-stationary conditions? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 5061–5077.
Thilakarathne, M. and Sridhar, V. (2017) Characterization of future drought conditions in the Lower Mekong River Basin. Weather and Climate Extremes, 17, 47–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.07.004
Um, M.-J., Kim, Y. and Kim, J. (2017) Evaluating historical drought characteristics simulated in CORDEX East Asia against observations. International Journal of Climatology, 37(13), 4643–4655. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5112
UNDP. (2016) Vietnam Drought and Saltwater Intrusion: Transitioning from Emergency to Recovery. Vietnam: UNDP.
Vu-Thanh, H., Ngo-Duc, T. and Phan-Van, T. (2014) Evolution of meteorological drought characteristics in Vietnam during the 1961–2007 period. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 118, 367–375.
Vu, M.T., Raghavan, V.S. and Liong, S.-Y. (2015) Ensemble climate projection for hydro-meteorological drought over a river basin in Central Highland, Vietnam. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 19, 427–433.
Vu, M.T., Vo, N.D., Gourbesville, P., Raghavan, S.V. and Liong, S.-Y. (2017) Hydro-meteorological drought assessment under climate change impact over the Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basin, Vietnam. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62, 1654–1668.
Wang, D., Hejazi, M., Cai, X. and Valocchi, A.J. (2011) Climate change impact on meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought in Central Illinois. Water Resources Research, 47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009845.
Wu, H. and Chen, B. (2015) Evaluating uncertainty estimates in distributed hydrological modeling for the Wenjing River watershed in China by GLUE, SUFI-2, and ParaSol methods. Ecological Engineering, 76, 110–121.
