Abstract :
[en] This report summarises existing knowledge of the climate-related hazards facing the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region and the current and projected climate-induced impacts to which it is exposed. The vulnerability of urban structures to climate-induced phenomena is related to the magnitude of climate hazards and is determined by the adaptability and exposure of a given site. Cities in the EMME region are exposed to various climate-related stakes, depending on their geographical position and morphology, while their physical and socio-economic characteristics influence their adaptability and, ultimately, their vulnerability. While climate change is a global phenomenon and its mitigation through a reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires an international effort, climate change impacts are more localized and must be tackled in their given geographical contexts. The built environment is the human-made space that provides the setting for human activity (Roof and Oleru 2008). It is a complex and tangled multi-scale system ranging from buildings to neighborhoods and cities (Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions 2020). It encompasses a variety of places and spaces created or modified by people, which include green spaces, transportation systems, infrastructures like energy networks, water supply, and sewerage systems, public, residential, commercial, and industrial buildings (Torgal et al. 2014). The latter are increasingly recognized as drivers of peak demand and significant sources of GHG emissions. Local authorities can be catalysts of change; with deep knowledge of the characteristics and needs of their communities, regional authorities can design and implement adaptive actions, falling in line with major international agreements such as the Paris Agreement, the New Urban Agenda, the 2030 Sustainability Goals of the UN and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Adaptive and mitigating actions at the city level could therefore contribute significantly towards the fulfillment of the above international commitments, whilst improving local conditions for urban dwellers (Prieur-Richard et al. 2019). Nevertheless, insufficient resources, whether in terms of trained personnel or financial support, are holding back this potential of local authorities, resulting in slow progress, implementation, and monitoring of adaptive actions, more pronounced in smaller cities and towns. Considering that more than two-thirds of the world’s population are expected to inhabit urban centers by 2050, cities should be able to cope with the ever-increasing demands and further mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. In the Middle East, the distinct role of the built environment is rising in importance, as rapid population growth and urbanization have been, and still are, shaping cities and suburban areas of the region. The shifts in population density towards urban centers and changed lifestyles in the EMME region have led to heedless land use, unplanned urban development, consumerism, and increased energy consumption, along with higher greenhouse gas emissions. Traditionally, the EMME region has had a small part in the global emissions inventory, however, should current trends continue, the area is likely to become a more impactful emitter. Therefore, sustainable development strategies are urgently needed in the EMME countries; a difficult task for the built environment and construction industry overall, with many hurdles to overcome (Middle East Institute 2011).
Nowadays, innovation tackles traditional problems and cities are no exception. Urban centers have the capacity to facilitate various forms of interaction. Social relationships can grow, cultivated on economic and cultural services and products, all within the boundaries of cities and while addressing key challenges such as sustainable development and the well-being of citizens. Moreover, cities allow for a diverse range of agents of innovation, from researchers to private companies, regional authorities, and civic organizations (Vandecasteele et al. 2019).
Nonetheless, little has been done so far intangible adaptive measures in the EMME region, as most of the measures currently planned and carried out in this region are based on conceptual principles of knowledge development, public awareness, and advancement of policy. In this respect and in order to carry out accurate local climate vulnerability assessments, high-quality data is required, as climate risk is profoundly context-dependent. Robust resources, accessible and applicable to the local level, are needed in order to fully grasp current and projected climate threats. Synergistic relationships among urban centers, researchers, and relevant stakeholders are pivotal to the development of such resources in the EMME region.
Cities, towns, and other human settlements are particularly important for the urgent implementation of adaptive measures. While in 1950, cities hosted about 30% of the world’s population; currently, nearly 55% is urban, with a projection to reach 70% in 2050 (Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2019). Adaptation actions in cities are also necessary from an economic perspective. Urban areas host industry and services and are focal points of economic activity, generally characterized by high values of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (Lavalle et al. 2017). Indeed, urbanization implies economic growth; about 80% of global GDP is generated in cities (Grübler and Fisk 2012), a share that is expected to grow. According to the World Economic Forum (WEF) multi-stakeholders survey, the failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation was 2019 seen as the number one risk to the economy in terms of its impact and the second most significant risk in terms of likelihood of occurrence within the next ten years. Since 2017, extreme weather has been assessed in the Global risks report as having the highest probability among the economy's threats (WEF 2021). The importance of urban resilience to climate change is emphasized in the key international agreements, frameworks, and policies, including the United Nations (UN) 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (UN 2015b).
Adaptation in the EMME context, especially in the local and urban settings, has arguably started taking place. However, the evaluation of the current adaptation strategies of the EMME countries suggests that progress in actions at the local level varies among countries (UNEP 2018). Also, there is no comprehensive overview of urban and local governments' adaptation efforts across the region.
